In a recent post, I tried to warn people about the substantial and growing chance of World War 3. My post was focused on the risk that a war will occur, but it didn’t really focus on the risk that the US and its allies will be defeated in that war. Yes, nuclear weapons are a factor, but there’s no certainty they’ll be unleashed in WW3, even by the losing side. So yes, there is a chance the US and its allies could be defeated by China and its allies in a major conventional world war. How big is this chance of defeat? Obviously, factors like training and competence come into play, and these are in favor of the US. ... (full story)