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The Really Useless System 25 replies

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The Really Useless Thread

Quoting goosebone
Border tax opposition is building in Congress. Both sides are positioning for a fight. Without it the tax cut promises made by the white house are unaffordable without fat deficit spending. That's a hard sell even without the debt limit in the spotlight soon. End of the month Trump should be addressing Congress on all that. If the recent rally in us equities is resting largely on tax cut expectations the debate surrounding the border tax should get dicey in markets.
Debt limit is a show not a pattern really. Its basically just a display case to world that US has intention of responsible debt policy and actual possible repayment of debt down the road, which anyone serious enough can understand as a joke only in best case. It affects expectations but not the facts. I might be wrong, but i really dont see obstracles in this getting passed. But yeh for sure equities have been giving great runs lately, have 32 of them on watchlist which is the largest number since mid 2014 on my side, altough not sure how much of that is really due to tax, or some other catalyst providing such good setup environment.
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Debt limit is a show not a pattern really. Its basically just a display case to world that US has intention of responsible debt policy and actual possible repayment of debt down the road, which anyone serious enough can understand as a joke only in best case. It affects expectations but not the facts. I might be wrong, but i really dont see obstracles in this getting passed. But yeh for sure equities have been giving great runs lately, have 32 of them on watchlist which is the largest number since mid 2014 on my side, altough not...
Right but that show is all that matters. Not saying we will do another cliff hanger (you might remember how important that show was not too long ago) just saying that it makes it tougher to sell blowing up the deficit to get tax cuts done in the size and scope they were described in the campaign. Not the main event, just a contributing factor.
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Right but that show is all that matters. Not saying we will do another cliff hanger (you might remember how important that show was not too long ago) just saying that it makes it tougher to sell blowing up the deficit to get tax cuts done in the size and scope they were described in the campaign. Not the main event, just a contributing factor.
Yep was a good show, the bigger show you make about it the more serious you look about respecting it. While the politicans are flapping around like headless chickens the coin makers on top of pyramid are high fiveing eachother on long term game. Usual play, playing the chess game thinking not 3 but 10 steps ahead. There have been times where some mates in college were telling me this ship is gona blow judging the debt growth, ceiling distance etc, not understanding the game behind it. On same topic i think i read probably over 10 books written in 2000-2003 about EZ and EUR downfall becouse due to this and that, 15 years later EZ is stronger union than ever before and all the potential "doom" plays never fruited becouse those authors didnt understood that the game was played several steps ahead of what the info was thrown out at the time. In their defense it was a bit harder to see it then, much easier after the fact. Ceiling in that respect is the same game.
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yep was a good show, the bigger show you make about it the more serious you look about respecting it. While the politicans are flapping around like headless chickens the coin makers on top of pyramid are high fiveing eachother on long term game. Usual play, playing the chess game thinking not 3 but 10 steps ahead. There have been times where some mates in college were telling me this ship is gona blow judging the debt growth, ceiling distance etc, not understanding the game behind it. On same topic i think i read probably over 10 books written...
Agree. Just that if what, in the end, is being asked for by the white house is a tax cut/infrastructure program that is held up by deficit spending alone, the ceiling just gives opposition one more angle among many others from which to pee in their cheerios that's all. No doomsday. Just politics. Politics that could have some effect on how high equities want to ride a Trump trade. End of the day, if anything, could turn out another BTFD opportunity.
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Agree. Just that if what, in the end, is being asked for by the white house is a tax cut/infrastructure program that is held up by deficit spending alone, the ceiling just gives opposition one more angle among many others from which to pee in their cheerios that's all. No doomsday. Just politics. Politics that could have some effect on how high equities want to ride a Trump trade. End of the day, if anything, could turn out another BTFD opportunity.
Hm yes for short term impact on equities. If it passes then it has larger (than priced) long term impact, Trump trade for equities is still far from over in that respect.
BTFD?
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} BTFD?
Buy the f**ng dip
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Quoting goosebone
{quote} Buy the f**ng dip {image}
Hahah. Thats some higher level of buying the bullish macros, or one just needs to get in tune with current markets.

But once in before seven hills and all the fairy lands i was told this:
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Pattern fitting trully is the king. Makes a monkey look like king, and a king look like a farmer.
Quoting goosebone
Shorted 668. Stop at 715........
Tp1 hit at 582.
Eyes on the Euro for the European session flirting to move out of the handle.

Quoting sisse
....Two gone all the rest still in play IN @hoom, @Karpa in long -> Long 1.068x -> STP 1.0630x [check]-> TP1 1.078x -> TP2 1.088x | max r:r 1:4 sisse
On the iteration front a quick update with 1.058x cleared. Drawdown (DD) since we triggered the entries a couple of ticks.
Well done all shorts I know a few ....

While all longs gone and stopped out. No surprises really. One more time taking a position against the outlook is not precisely the bestsellers idea w% despite the r:r.

sisse

@goosebone
-> Short 1.068x[check] -> STP 1.078x -> TP1 1.058x [check] -> TP2 1.048x -> TP3 1.028x| max r:r 1:4

@SorinAQ

hidden

@IMARICH1 in short
@clayjay in short

-> Short 1.068x[check] -> STP 1.088x -> TP1 1.058x [check] -> TP2 1.048x | max r:r 1:1

-------

@ the rest.

-> Long 1.068x [check]-> STP 1.0580x [check]-> TP1 1.078x -> TP2 1.088x -> TP3 1.098x | max r:r 1:3

or

-> Short 1.068x [check] -> STP 1.078x -> TP1 Parity | max r:r 1:6

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
I thought entry was 1.068 with a breakout, I was expecting a retrace so missed the train
Another set of solid economic data for the Eurozone is being offset by political risk, following yesterday's poll showing a slight drop in the support for Macron (perhaps losing some of his earlier momentum), now level with Fillon, and a slight increase in the lead of Le Pen (she is still expected to win the first round and lose in the second).

The focus of political risk over economic fundamentals is being played out in the government bond markets, with the German 2-year bund yielding a record low of -0.87% in this morning's session, with the yields on US Treasuries of the same maturity up marginally on the day. Also, the spread between the yields on the 10-year paper of German and French government debt continues to widen.
No surprises playing with 520 area but my thought is 580-610 range is right for FOMC Minutes. I don't imagine eu strays far from there til news is behind us.
The "Or" iteration won't work for me. The issue is the stop is reasonable but the TP1 for Parity is not.

If this iteration has different TP in place then that would be better. This iteration doesn't manage capital and rewards.

Ive taken profit at .0580. I have two more positions on but have to manage capital first. Scaling in and managing is still not an area I'm the best at.

I can see a quick test to .048x before Minutes as a possibility. Not sure it will but possible if .0500 handle gets tested.
Goosebone,

You may have called that area right as price reacted very quickly there. I was looking for a test of the .0500 handle. It is reasonable to believe we will visit the .058x/.0610 level again prior to Minutes.
I think its reasonable to expect the low is gonna hold at least til minutes. If not we may visit it from downside. It looked set to take it on the NY open but the flow was killed by the numbers. However, dont expect the numbers to have any impact beyond intraday M30 or so chart. judging by the equities no-one cares under the low I think its just a super quick main part of the ST swing.
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Quoting gammase1
Another set of solid economic data for the Eurozone is being offset by political risk, following yesterday's poll showing a slight drop in the support for Macron (perhaps losing some of his earlier momentum), now level with Fillon, and a slight increase in the lead of Le Pen (she is still expected to win the first round and lose in the second). The focus of political risk over economic fundamentals is being played out in the government bond markets, with the German 2-year bund yielding a record low of -0.87% in this morning's session, with the yields...
Yes there is an increasingly worrying context in France :

 

  1. The fact that 54% of the voters are not sure of their choice says everything about the uncertainty of this presidential election. This has never been seen in France before.
  2. The only thing that is almost certain is that Le Pen will be at second round of this election : her electorate is sure at 80% to vote for her (by comparison it's 65% for Fillon and only 35% for Macron) and she is easily ahead in the polls for first round, leading by 5-8 points (which is huge).
  3. Uncertainty is about who else will be at second round to fight her and chances to win.
  4. "Good" news is that communists/extrem-left (Melenchon) and hard socialists (Hamon) will not ally as they failed to reach an agreement last week. If they had managed to do so, they would have been easily at second round, and then odds for a Le Pen's victory would have seriously increased as many voters from the right wing and from the center would have refused to choose between extrem-right and extrem-left (extrem-left have also scary ideas but of course not as much as Le Pen).
  5. Macron had a poor month. He had a highway in front of him after Fillons fake jobs scandal was revealed and some right-wing voters were interested to vote for him but he failed to widen the gap with his opponents by making very poor meetings (a lot of empty rhetoric as his detailed program is not ready yet) and starting useless controversies (French colonial past, gay marriage). His political immaturity is a handicap and may prevent him from reaching second round. As said above, only 35% of his electorate are sure to vote for him now. If he goes to second round, polls say he will still win easily vs Le Pen (59% - 41%) but gap is decreasing (it was 67% - 33% few weeks ago).
  6. Fillon has finally managed to resist to fake jobs scandal (shame he did not resign, but well, french voters are used to unworthy french politicians anyway...). His electorate went over it for the "good of the nation" they said. He has now as much chances as Macron to make it to second round (both are at 19%-20% in polls). He even has more chances than Macron as his electorate is sure at 65% to vote for him (only 35% for Macron). Where it becomes really worrying is that odds for Fillon to win vs Le Pen at second round have seriously dicreased : latest polls still show him winning but only 56% - 44% (it was 65% - 35% and sometimes 70-30 % in November/December!). Explanation is that many voters (mainly from the left and from the center) are really angry with him after the scandal : in one hand, he organized fake jobs at the parliament for his wife and children when he was a MP, and in the other hand, if he is elected, he wants to implement very tough reforms that will ask a lot of scraficies to French (he is happy to be nicknamed a french Thatcher). Many voters who are not from the right wing don't want to back him if he challenges Le Pen at second round (despite last 30 years French have always gather behind Front National's challenger to avoid the election of a nutter : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...27#post9254227)
  7. Tomorrow (I think it's at 3:30pm GMT), Bayrou, a centrist, will announce if he is candidate to presidential election (expected) or if he supports Macron (less expected). If he backs Macron, that will make things a lot clearer as odds for Macron to go to second round and win over Le Pen will then increase a lot. If Bayrou goes on his own, it will be a real circus (though it's already one), because then Macron's and Fillon's chances to reach second round will be weaker and could open the door for hard-socialist Hamon to go to second round... And odds for a hard-socialist to defeat Le Pen at second round are the smallest among all pretenders...


PS (Very important) : If Le Pen wins (not expected so far but trend is with her), it will not be over because in June we have MP elections in France. And because of how they are organised, she has nearly 0 chance to have majority at the parliament so she could barely rule the country even if she is elected president.

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yes there is an increasingly worrying context in France : The fact that 54% of the voters are not sure of their choice says everything about the uncertainty of this presidential election. This has never been seen in France before. The only thing that is almost certain is that Le Pen will be at second round of this election : her electorate is sure at 80% to vote for her (by comparison it's 65% for Fillon and only 35% for Macron) and she is easily ahead in the polls for first round, leading by 5-8 points (which is huge). Uncertainty is about...
Great to have the perspective from you and Ganmasse. Much appreciate the updates. Keep it coming thanks.
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yes there is an increasingly worrying context in France : The fact that 54% of the voters are not sure of their choice says everything about the uncertainty of this presidential election. This has never been seen in France before. The only thing that is almost certain is that Le Pen will be at second round of this election : her electorate is sure at 80% to vote for her (by comparison it's 65% for Fillon and only 35% for Macron) and she is easily ahead in the polls for first round, leading by 5-8 points (which is huge). Uncertainty is about...
C'čtait trčs intéressant. Merci et bonne journeč.
Very good day for trading across the board... Very strong numbers from the EZ keep coming while v. slightly softening from the UK. US equities not looking back with the lagging herd blindly jumping on the bandwagon at the very expensive highs. The textbook definition of buying emotions at the highs rather than value ...

Whatever the case, OIL obviously itching to break up but failed on the first serious attempt this year. It looks a matter of when rather than if. We are sitting on imminent break up for weeks with outstanding numbers from EZ and US, OPEC inline, political risk on the highs and to put the cherry on top the whole US foreign policy is driven directly by Exxon and a bunch of top executive from OIL companies... all ducks aligned ...

On the FX, front Dollar struggling to cope with all the major forces pushing up and only random Trump tweets early in the year are keeping in check. On the Euro, it barely held the handle but held at the end. It looks set for a very bearish roll today. Tracking the close today for reference for the Minutes.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
Quoting Replicant
{quote} PS (Very important) : If Le Pen wins (not expected so far but trend is with her), it will not be over because in June we have MP elections in France. And because of how they are organised, she has nearly 0 chance to have majority at the parliament so she could barely rule the country even if she is elected president.
Yes for fact checking yes. But for short term market reaction/expectation no. There is 3 months in between that, markets will likely price before that risk side for EUR/FR50/bonds on downside if she wins same as we had with Brexit, and reaction can be severe. We still havent fact checked Brexit and yet there were whipsaw moves all across markets for it. In that regards election results are important and mumbo jumbo short term after it, before facts are cleared down.
The reason that markets dont expect her to win really (Trump/Brexit), is only an extra catalysts that adds to matter, mind that strongest popers always come from where the majority of market is standing on wrong side (CHF/HKG).
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