Next Wednesday’s reports are likely to show a further softening in labour market conditions over the first quarter of this year. We expect the unemployment rate to rise from 4.0% to 4.2% – that’s still a low level compared to history, but it’s a substantial lift from the record low of 3.2% that was set two years ago. We also expect an easing in the pace of wage growth, even more so compared to the December quarter which was boosted by a public sector pay agreement. Our unemployment rate forecast is in line with the Reserve Bank’s view. Employment is tracking ahead of what the Reserve Bank expected in its February ... (full story)