Finally at a cyclical turning point. Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, has added to recent evidence of a bottoming out of the German economy. In April, the Ifo index increased for the third month in a row, to 89.4, from 87.9 in March. Judging from previous experiences, three consecutive increases tend to mark a turning point in the economy. Today’s increase was driven by both the improved current assessment and expectations components. The Ifo headline index is now back to levels last seen in the early summer of last year, illustrating the return of optimism. Speed of cyclical improvement of ... (full story)