We try not to react to just one data point because, as we have always said, “a data point doesn’t a trend make.” Furthermore, we don’t know if this is just a one-time event or if it is the start of something more. But we have been expecting a slowdown in economic activity for a while, and April’s 175,000 nonfarm payrolls is the first sign that maybe, just maybe, our expectation for a slowdown in economic activity is finally here. If you look at our forecast, we are still expecting a slowdown in economic activity, if not for any reason other than the famous “long and variable lags of monetary policy” which, for this ... (full story)