Members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by noting that momentum in the global economic recovery had eased in recent months. The global recovery also remained uneven, reflecting cross-country differences in policy support and vaccination rates. However, by year end, output in many economies was expected to have recovered to, or surpassed, pre-pandemic levels. In countries with high vaccination rates, the recovery had been supported by the lifting of restrictions on mobility in recent months; rates of hospitalisation and recent deaths were relatively low despite an increase in case numbers of COVID-19. Consumption of services in the United States, Canada and several European countries had largely recovered from earlier declines, with high-frequency indicators of activity in the services sector (such as retail foot traffic and restaurant dining) returning to around pre-pandemic levels. Members noted that unemployment rates in advanced economies had continued to decline over recent months. Demand for labour was high, although the supply of labour had been slower to respond to the lifting of restrictions, particularly in the services sector; these mismatches were contributing to pockets of labour shortages and wage pressures in some industries. Overall, wages growth had picked up in the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand, but remained modest in the euro area and Canada. Members noted th tweet at 9:33pm: RBA Minutes: Central Scenario Is For Rates On Hold Until 2024 - GDP Expected To Decline Materially In September QuarterRBA September meeting minutes - see no rate rise until 2024 Reiterating ... as did Low in his most recent public comments last week: • central scenario is conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024 • board committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions • outbreak of the delta variant had delayed, but not derailed, the recovery • economy was expected to bounce back as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased • board will continue to review the bond purchase program in light of economic conditions and the health situation • considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of the recovery, which was likely to be slower than experienced earlier • bank's bond purchase program is expanding faster relative to the stock of bonds outstanding than that of many other central banks • members continued to emphasise the importance of maintaining lending standards • progress towards the bank's goals was likely to take longer and was less assured given delta • members recognised that the outbreak of the delta variant was delaying the recovery and had added to the uncertainty about the future

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