Takeaways 1. As we begin the new year, “the economy is in a good place overall.” “Inflation is down significantly from its 2022 peak,” and data continue to point to a gradual, if uneven, trajectory back to the Fed’s 2 percent target. This has been accomplished with a labor market that has stayed healthy “as unsustainably hot job-market conditions from two years ago cooled in an orderly way.” 2. By describing the economy as in a good place overall, Collins is not declaring victory – and in fact sees “considerable uncertainty accompanying my baseline outlook.” “While inflation is down significantly, it is still above target; and its decline has been slower and bumpier” than anticipated. Collins described multiple types of uncertainty – including “noisy” measurement of key economic variables, unusual features of the post-pandemic economy, and possible future policy changes and geopolitical developments. post: BOSTON FED'S COLLINS/NAIOP: LESS WORRIED NOW ABOUT JOBS MKT FRAGILITY; BROADLY AGREE WITH S.E.P. OUTLOOK ON TWO 2025 RATE CUTS #Collins #FederalReserve #economy post: BOSTON FED'S COLLINS/NAIOP: RESTRICTIVE POLICY STANCE STILL NEEDED; 2025 INFLATION TO RUN 'SOMEWHAT HIGHER' THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT #Collins #FederalReserve #economy post: BOSTON FED'S COLLINS/NAIOP: 'NO PRESET PATH' FOR POLICY; FED WELL POSITIONED TO ADJUST TO WHATEVER NEEDS TO BE DONE; NEED 'GRADUALISM' #Collins #FederalReserve #economy

post: FED'S BARKIN: THE CONSUMER DEBT BURDEN IS STILL WELL BELOW 2018-2019. post: FED'S BARKIN: THE LACK OF FISCAL SPACE IS A RISK FOR FUTURE RECESSIONS. post: FED'S BARKIN: I THINK THE TERM PREMIUM IS MOVING LONG RATES, NOT INFLATION.