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Supply Chain Disruptions Have Eased, But Remain a Concern
Supply chain disruptions became a major headache for businesses in the aftermath of the pandemic. Indeed, in October 2021, nearly all firms in our regional business surveys reported at least some difficulty obtaining the supplies they needed. These supply chain disruptions were a key contributor to the surge in inflation that occurred as the economy recovered from the pandemic recession. In this post, we present new measures of supply availability from our Business Leaders Survey and Empire State Manufacturing Survey that closely track the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). We will begin ... (full story)
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The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, ...
Thank you, Beth Anne, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.1 I would like to welcome everyone to this Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, which is jointly organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board. When people talk about the "dollar," they are referring to a number of roles it plays on the world stage—including a physical currency used worldwide, financial assets denominated or redeemable in U.S. dollars, or a settlement unit used in transactions. In all of these, the role of the U.S. dollar in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are of elementary importance to Federal Reserve. Participants in the first and second installments of this conference discussed the different roles the dollar plays in the global economy and how the primacy of the dollar benefits not only the United States but also the rest of the world. U.S. households, for instance, benefit from lower transaction and borrowing costs, while U.S. businesses and the U.S. government benefit from deep financial markets, including a large pool of creditors and investors. Households and businesses in foreign economies also benefit from access to this broad pool of lenders and investors, which reduces their financing costs and fosters global economic growth. post: FED'S WALLER DOES NOT COMMENT ON MONETARY POLICY OR THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN REMARKS PREPARED FOR DELIVERY AT FED CONFERENCE ON THE ROLE OF THE DOLLAR.
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Thank you, Mark, for the kind introduction, and good morning to all of you.1 I am happy to be here. Today, I will do three things. First, I'll share with you my current outlook for the US economy. Second, I'll discuss my thinking on the current stance of monetary policy. Third, I'll review the dynamics of housing prices which can feed into the persistence of inflation. My focus on housing price dynamic stems from the role housing plays in the American economy. For most families, a home is their largest-ever purchase and their most valuable asset. Capital markets professionals in real estate finance, like you, are crucial to the smooth operation of the housing sector. Families making housing decisions rely on a healthy and productive housing finance sector. The housing sector is also one of the most interest rate–sensitive sectors of the economy. As such, it's an important channel of monetary policy transmission. Understanding the various channels of monetary transmission is crucial to fulfillment of the dual mandate given to the Federal Reserve by the Congress: maximum employment and stable prices. This mandate guides my thinking about monetary policymaking. With that, I'll turn to my outlook for the US economy. Aggregate Economic Activity The U.S. economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Adjusted for inflation, GDP was reported to have increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2024. That was a moderation from a 3.4 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of last year. However, private domestic final purchases—which excludes inventory investment, government spending, and net exports and usually sends a clearer signal on underlying demand—grew 3.1 percent in the first quarter. That was about as strong as the second half of 2023. post: Fed's Jefferson: Policy Rate is in Restrictive Territory Jefferson: April’s Better Inflation Reading is Encouraging Jefferson: Long-Term Inflation Expectations Show Americans Believe Fed Will Make Good on 2% Inflation Goal
May has so far brought a weak dollar, strong risk sentiment, and growing expectations for Federal Reserve easing. A data-gripped market may, however, need to find the next ...
post: Fed’s Jefferson: Important Not to Focus on Just One Data Point post: FED'S JEFFERSON: THE LABOR MARKET HAS BEEN QUITE RESILIENT. post: FED'S JEFFERSON: IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE CONTINUED JOB GROWTH WHILE DISINFLATION CONTINUES. post: FED'S JEFFERSON: IT IS APPROPRIATE TO RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL BALANCE SHEET.
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- Posted: May 20, 2024 10:00am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 1,913