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- Submitted Jul 9, 2021|From think.ing.com
After yesterday’s announcement of the results of the ECB’s strategy review, the just released minutes of the June meeting make us curious about what has happened behind the scenes. According to the minutes, the rift between hawks and doves, last ...
- Submitted Jul 9, 2021|From think.ing.com
OPEC+ called off its meeting this week without an agreement to increase oil supplies. Some market participants still expect a deal to be struck but others say the spat could lead to a price war. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson shares his ...
- Submitted Apr 6, 2021|From think.ing.com
While the ECB may be delighted that the trade-weighted euro is now down 2.5% from its highs at the start of the year, it will be less happy about the reason for that decline. Undoubtedly the soft euro has been driven by a re-assessment of eurozone ...
- Submitted Mar 12, 2021|From think.ing.com
Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings next week will be in focus, however, don’t expect any changes to asset purchases or interest rates just yet as economies remain under pressure. The US sees the Federal Reserve meeting, which will include ...
- Submitted Mar 12, 2021|From think.ing.com
UK monthly GDP fell by a sizeable 2.9% in January, though this is clearly quite a bit better than feared. While the national lockdown shuttered a range of industries, the hit to consumer industries was not quite as bad as it could have been. But ...
- Submitted Mar 12, 2021|From think.ing.com
Crude oil prices traded firm yesterday on healthy gasoline demand in the US and an overall constructive report from OPEC. The group now expects global oil demand to increase by 5.89MMbbls/d YoY in 2021 as compared to its estimate last month of ...
- Submitted Mar 11, 2021|From think.ing.com
The European Central Bank surprised with the announcement of frontloaded Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) purchases (see ECB Review), but in terms of the dovish impact on underling eurozone assets, this is more a story for the eurozone ...
- Submitted Mar 8, 2021|From think.ing.com|1 comment
Supreme confidence in the global recovery and central banks in no hurry to tap the breaks have combined to deliver a sizable bond market sell-off. The adjustment has erred to the disorderly and prompted some adjustment in positioning – especially in ...
- Submitted Mar 5, 2021|From think.ing.com|1 comment
The key take-away from yesterday's commentary is that Chair Powell is prepared to let inflation take off, and is unlikely to take action in the face of that, unless it gets out of control. The problem is we won’t know whether it is in or out of ...
- Submitted Mar 5, 2021|From think.ing.com
In the lead up to Thursday’s meeting there was plenty of uncertainty around what OPEC+ might do, particularly given the strength that we have seen in the market so far this year, with Brent up more than 28% YTD. The group at the start of the year ...
- Submitted Mar 5, 2021|From think.ing.com
The Fed Chair made it very clear that the US has a very long way to go to meet its full employment goals – meaning in reality a strong jobs report today should not bring pricing of the first Fed hike nearer than the currently-priced 1Q23. Yet any ...
- Submitted Mar 4, 2021|From think.ing.com
The nickel industry has always been on the cusp of change, and the latest news that Tsingshan will mass-produce nickel matte could be a game-changer. The risks of battery-grade nickel supply are much reduced. Until a new market equilibrium is found, ...
- Submitted Mar 3, 2021|From think.ing.com
Booming commodity prices have accompanied the market’s recent bets on the global recovery. As shown in Fig 1, almost all major commodities saw a sharp increase in the first two months of 2021, led by the well-sustained recovery in oil prices. ...
- Submitted Mar 3, 2021|From think.ing.com
Aluminium has fared well this year, with LME 3M prices gaining over 13% year-to-date. The market seems to have shrugged off stock building in China and is focusing on the positives. Yet, we currently don’t expect a shortage for 2021 as a whole. So ...
- Submitted Feb 25, 2021|From think.ing.com|2 comments
Despite the meaningful spike in US Treasury yields, cyclical currencies remain fairly stable and recorded gains vs USD. As long as the rise in UST yields and the curve steepening is driven by ‘’good’’ economic factors and the perception that the ...
- Submitted Sep 9, 2019|From think.ing.com
What the Riksbank's latest announcement tells us is that the central bank is going to be much more reluctant to follow the ECB towards policy easing at this stage. Despite some energy-related weakness over the next few months, CPIF inflation should ...
- Submitted Sep 9, 2019|From think.ing.com
Despite recent positive comments from US and China officials, we look for further deterioration in the trade war this year. This is because we expect China to stand firm in its rejection of some US demands (i.e. the issue of intellectual property ...
- Submitted Aug 28, 2019|From think.ing.com|2 comments
UK prime minister Boris Johnson has announced that parliament will be prorogued – or suspended – between the weeks of 9 September until 14 October, when the Queen's speech will take place. The big question for markets is: does this decision make a ...
- Submitted Aug 19, 2019|From think.ing.com
Given the very light data calendar, the coming days should be characterised by the build-up of expectations towards the annual symposium in Jackson Hole starting this Thursday. Although the general discussion (among FOMC members) should be fairly ...
- Submitted Aug 16, 2019|From think.ing.com|1 comment
Some positive signals from July retail sales and New York Fed Empire index helped to partly cast out fears of a US recession and stabilise equity markets yesterday. As highlighted by our US economist, we are reluctant to attach a high probability of ...