USDCHF: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 19.04.24 – 26.04.24

Thank you to the Peterson Institute for the invitation to participate in today’s event focussing on the CEPR volume on monetary policy responses to the post-pandemic inflation1 . In line with the title of this panel I want to provide an update on my assessment of the evidence on what has caused the UK’s inflation2 . This evidence covers the key indicators of inflation and in particular persistence as well as associated analysis and what this implies for the extent to which the risks from persistence are receding. Economic forecasters have had a challenging time over the last few years in forecasting the inflation process, given the series of unprecedented and overlapping shocks which have hit the global economy. These challenges were highlighted in Ben Bernanke’s comprehensive review of the Bank’s approach to, and use of forecasting published last week. A key recommendation of the Bernanke review is that the Bank should make more systematic use of scenarios in framing the outlook for inflation and the implications for monetary policy, in a world characterised by greater uncertainty and significant structural changes. The Bank has committed to implementing all the recommendations of the review. As someone who has used scenarios throughout my career, I think this is the right direction for the Bank to go in. But we should travel with a high degree of humility, given the ongoing uncertainties a post: BOE'S RAMSDEN: THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE BUMPS IN THE DISINFLATION PROCESS FROM ONE MONTH TO THE NEXT. post: BOE'S RAMSDEN: THIS LEAVES THE UK AS LESS OF AN OUTLIER AND MORE OF A LAGGARD IN TERMS OF RECENT INFLATION PERFORMANCE. post: BOE'S RAMSDEN: INFLATION STAYING CLOSE TO THE 2% TARGET OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD IS AT LEAST AS LIKELY AS THE FEBRUARY 2024 FORECAST. post: BANK OF ENGLAND MPC MEMBER DAVE RAMSDEN AT PETERSON INSTITUTE PANEL: I HAVE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RISKS OF PERSISTENT INFLATION ARE RECEDING #bankofengland #boe #daveramsden #monetarypolicy #interestrates #inflation #ukeconomy