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Post #23,661
Quote
May 21, 2018 4:13am May 21, 2018 4:13am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Following are the links to sentiment stuff which one found on one of my blogrolls:

Post #23,662
Quote
May 21, 2018 4:13am May 21, 2018 4:13am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Sites with Elliott Wave content:

Post #23,663
Quote
May 21, 2018 4:15am May 21, 2018 4:15am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

some Data sources:

Post #23,664
Quote
May 21, 2018 4:16am May 21, 2018 4:16am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Charting sites:

Post #23,665
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May 21, 2018 4:17am May 21, 2018 4:17am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Bond/Yields sites:

Post #23,666
Quote
May 21, 2018 4:18am May 21, 2018 4:18am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Educational stuff:

Post #23,667
Quote
Edited at 4:44pm May 25, 2018 2:03pm | Edited at 4:44pm

Karpa
Joined Mar 2014 | Status: swimming with floaters and snorkels | 1,157 Posts

Thanks for the links
E/U at 1.1655
10% euro bulls as of Wed/23 close
COT will be published in 1.5 hours

CFTC for euro: 110k longs vs 115k previous week
speculative positions are still holding

Post #23,668
Quote
May 25, 2018 7:00pm May 25, 2018 7:00pm

chess king
Joined Jun 2011 | Status: the risk is the unknown | 2,029 Posts

Quoting chess king

Disliked

{quote} LONG risk 30 here. touched the 1.1752 is below 1.1820 but we will see!

Ignored

ooopsss --30
pretty strong
this move to low.

1.1820 is a level of respect.
I did not respect him... to see what 1.1752 was doing

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Post #23,669
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May 25, 2018 9:18pm May 25, 2018 9:18pm

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Quoting infinitus

Disliked

very interesting situation for EURUSD COT report shows very bullish Speculators; at the same time the Forex retail crowd, which was short EU for over a year, now switches to net long The Daily sentiment Index (small futures traders) shows only 18% EU bulls. The USD Index is at 84% bulls. Both can go further in their direction My opinion is, that we may soon, or already, will see some kind of counter ralley. This will get the retail crowd outright bullish on EU. Then the big bang, and EU will dive further down. Then there is the Elliottican crowd....

Ignored

so far proofed to be true....

the retail crowd has been short (average) since around 1.2236,but some since the 1.24x level. Right now over 62% are long.

smaller option traders have been heavily short since weeks now, and their sentiment index is hoovering around 10 since start of May

COT data shows, that the large specs are covering their record long positions since mid April, nevertheless are long with around 92 mio contracts

Out of my view they are very slow to cover their position this time. Maybe they are hoping for a relief rally in order to cover at better prices. This may lead to further down pressure.

Price is entering a huge support shelf which stretches back to the year 2015

Situation reminds me a lot on the year 2014 relentless drop when we reached the 1.30 level. The crowd was heavily betting on long, and the smaller option traders showed very low sentiment levels for weeks, too. At that time it was a stupid thing to go long as we can see now

Difference is, that in 2015 the large specs where heavily short already (since around the 1.35 level). This can mean, that the large specs are positioned totally wrong this time, and the price of EU has to drop a lot more when the large specs start to accelerate the covering of their long positions.

The EW crowd has collectively changed their minds, when it got obvious, that they were in the wrong count. Most of them now sees us in a wave 5 of 3 now since the top at 255x

For that to be true, the now ongoing move down since a few days has to be the B-wave down of a wave 4 up. If true, we should see soon some upward pressure.

But on the other hand, we may see a brutal wave down, since the action of the past days may also suggest a 1-2, 1-2 movement which is preparing a wave 3 down.

So advice is:

upside pressure may be limited, downside risks are high

be careful with long positions, be careful with new short positions

staying neutral is an option

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Post #23,670
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May 25, 2018 9:28pm May 25, 2018 9:28pm

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

EU 12h

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Post #23,671
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May 25, 2018 9:30pm May 25, 2018 9:30pm

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

EU 12h with quarter lines

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Post #23,672
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May 25, 2018 9:55pm May 25, 2018 9:55pm

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Crude

history has shown, that most of the time USD is going up, oil is going down and vice versa

at the moment both went up. so we might assume, that one of them had the wrong way :-)

weekly oil

the blue 4 may invalidate my count, when it goes above 74.95

The I have to re-access the count

This count calls for oil below of 20 USD in the next years

Kep in mind: the red B may be placed wrong. There is an alternative that the red B was finished where the blue 2 is, or alternatively, the wave down from the red B does not develop as impulse but ABC pattern. In both of that alternatives we have seen the low already.

The wave up from the low in 2016 does not look to be an impulse right now. Chances are higher for a move lower right now

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Post #23,673
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May 26, 2018 3:06am May 26, 2018 3:06am

theDHT
Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts

Quoting infinitus

Disliked

Crude history has shown, that most of the time USD is going up, oil is going down and vice versa at the moment both went up. so we might assume, that one of them had the wrong way :-) weekly oil the blue 4 may invalidate my count, when it goes above 74.95 The I have to re-access the count This count calls for oil below of 20 USD in the next years Kep in mind: the red B may be placed wrong. There is an alternative that the red B was finished where the blue 2 is, or alternatively, the wave down from the red B does not develop as impulse but ABC pattern....

Ignored

It's those damn Saudis and their Aramco IPO!

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...

Post #23,674
Quote
Edited at 10:05pm May 26, 2018 9:49pm | Edited at 10:05pm

Karpa
Joined Mar 2014 | Status: swimming with floaters and snorkels | 1,157 Posts

Quoting infinitus

Disliked

{quote} ... Situation reminds me a lot on the year 2014 relentless drop when we reached the 1.30 level. The crowd was heavily betting on long, and the smaller option traders showed very low sentiment levels for weeks, too. At that time it was a stupid thing to go long as we can see now Difference is, that in 2015 the large specs where heavily short already (since around the 1.35 level). This can mean, that the large specs are positioned totally wrong this time, and the price of EU has to drop a lot more when the large specs start to accelerate the...

Ignored

The links you provided have data back to this period and more
crunching the numbers and watching how it happened

Post #23,675
Quote
May 27, 2018 2:19pm May 27, 2018 2:19pm

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Quoting Karpa

Disliked

{quote} The links you provided have data back to this period and more crunching the numbers and watching how it happened

Ignored

let us take a look at the positioning of the Dukascopy customers over the last 7 years.They always seem to lose money:

the indicator on the bottom of the chart shows their positioning.

On the chart I have marked the long and short periods:

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Post #23,676
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May 27, 2018 2:37pm May 27, 2018 2:37pm

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

COT Chart EU over the past 10 years

The commercials are the blue line, the large specs are the green line

On the chart marked are the periods, where the large specs were long or short

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Post #23,677
Quote
May 27, 2018 5:07pm May 27, 2018 5:07pm

Karpa
Joined Mar 2014 | Status: swimming with floaters and snorkels | 1,157 Posts

Great charts, this is what I'm trying to achieve for mt4 platform

Dukascopy sentiment is an excellent contra-indicator!
this chart actually shows traders holding to losers and adding to them
the growing candles shows positions increasing

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Post #23,678
Quote
Edited at 9:14pm May 27, 2018 8:21pm | Edited at 9:14pm

Karpa
Joined Mar 2014 | Status: swimming with floaters and snorkels | 1,157 Posts

Here is what I could manage so far..

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the eur/usd curve shows daily close spot values

Post #23,679
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May 28, 2018 12:26am May 28, 2018 12:26am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Quoting Karpa

Disliked

Here is what I could manage so far.. {image} the eur/usd curve shows daily close spot values

Ignored

great!!!

How have you done it?

Post #23,680
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May 28, 2018 12:29am May 28, 2018 12:29am

infinitus
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: s = k log W | 20,603 Posts

Quoting Karpa

Disliked

Here is what I could manage so far.. {image} the eur/usd curve shows daily close spot values

Ignored

that is a superb example how one can get killed easily

using the DSI without looking at COT and retail traders and other factors

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