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Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} That will be an endless debate, T . The real thing is psychological. You can't (IMO) simply let a trade run indefinitely while underwater. I've tried it all. Usually, when I don't use at the very least, a mental SL, I tend to let the trade run. Always thinking that it will come back. (I trade a rather high lot size (by balance) and it doesn't come back.) There's also the the "time/money" idea. If you let a trade run against you for 500 (or whatever) pips it's taking up your capital and your time. You could have been much better of to take...

!00% agreement with all said, I'm also in the if I let a trade run away, no way it's being closed I'll let it run wild and I trade 5% risk area so high as time is well limited.


Having the mental strength to close it, regardless of profit / loss would be ideal, if it's the right thing to do, but generally hope and waiting and seeing comes to mind!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} That will be an endless debate, T . The real thing is psychological. You can't (IMO) simply let a trade run indefinitely while underwater. I've tried it all. Usually, when I don't use at the very least, a mental SL, I tend to let the trade run. Always thinking that it will come back. (I trade a rather high lot size (by balance) and it doesn't come back.) There's also the the "time/money" idea. If you let a trade run against you for 500 (or whatever) pips it's taking up your capital and your time. You could have been much better of to take...

I've already weighed in.

Never said I don't take losing trades. I just said I don't use Stops nor believe that a Stop Loss is mandatory.

I also don't let trades go 500 underwater.

I trip the fast charts...I know if I've taken a bad trade within minutes. From there, watch and weigh my options on cutting or cost averaging.

Depending on range and session, I can usually escape a bad trade by a matter of spread and if I have cost averaged, typically net green.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
Quoting Magix
{quote} I just said I don't use Stops nor believe that a Stop Loss is mandatory. I also don't let trades go 500 underwater. I.
So basically... you have a stop somewhere between 1 and 500 pips ??
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} So basically... you have a stop somewhere between 1 and 500 pips ??
Basically.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
Quoting Proximus
{quote} You obviously cant comprehend that a margin call will stop you out anyway, the chance that a 700 pip stop will stop you out will still cause less damage than a margin call, supposing that you have proper lot size. {quote} Strange because you guys are on the same path as they were.Bankruptcy. {quote} Common sense is what you are missing... {quote} Work out for me? Its not me who cant manage risk, i know how to manage the risk.It is you guys who cant comprehend the importance of a damn SL.
So many assumptions in your thinking...

1) You are making assumptions about the level of leverage. Even if a big loss occurred that would cause a margin call, that is far better than advertising ahead of time where your force-out location is. Advertising causes 'customers' to appear when otherwise they wouldn't. A stop simply guarantees that you have no chance of minimizing the loss by picking a better exit. It is like using an ejection seat to land the airplane when things go bad. I prefer a controlled exit, no matter if I am right or wrong about the trade.

2) You are assuming that you know what I am doing. Do you really? Why don't you instead just say that you disagree with what I have said.

3) "Common Sense is what you are missing". Amazing. I mentioned Einstein to you and you ignore both him and me:

"Common Sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age 18." - Albert Einstein.

Still think you are on the right side of this? Still think that I 'need' common sense?
What Einstein and I mean is simply that the crowd is usually wrong. Believe in them at your peril.
Common sense in nothing but an unproven thought that has become habit because of stupidity.

If you would like to prove to me that the idea you support makes sense, please do go ahead and prove it. But calling it "Common Sense" is nothing but an admission of failure. After all, if your idea is so totally obviously true, it should be very easy to prove that.

I cannot prove to you that my idea is superior because I am not interested in collecting the data and doing the necessary analysis. So my opinion is based just on my own experience. I have never had a margin call. I have lost a few accounts due to losses caused entirely by stops. Should I ignore my experience and just believe you? Is that what you would do?

4) I do hope you have success with your approach. It just might be nice if you could interact with people with opposing viewpoints without getting religiously dogmatic.
Quoting Fractalist
2) You are assuming that you know what I am doing.

I'd be interested in having a look.

Feel free to drop a chart or link a brother up.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
Quoting Fractalist
{quote} So many assumptions in your thinking... 1) You are making assumptions about the level of leverage. Even if a big loss occurred that would cause a margin call, that is far better than advertising ahead of time where your force-out location is. Advertising causes 'customers' to appear when otherwise they wouldn't. A stop simply guarantees that you have no chance of minimizing the loss by picking a better exit. It is like using an ejection seat to land the airplane when things go bad. I prefer a controlled exit, no matter if I am right or wrong...
You want proof , fine.

First of all, the math proof, since if you dont put a SL basically your RR goes down to this: TP reward / Margin Call Risk
You cannot deny this, even if you manage to get the best system out there, there is still a remote chance for a MC

Also if you close the trades anyway, just as Magix stated that he will close the losing trades.Supposing that you close the trades past the STOPLEVEL, there is no technical difference between the manual close and the SL.

Its only a matter of risk: Huge spike, Huge volatility, which can delay your manual order close vs a predefined stop which executes the close as fast as possible.

And by own experience, humans are slower than machines.What are you gonna do if the price goes so quickly against you:

10 second panic, 5 second thinking that should i close it or not?, 2 second until i move my mouse to the close button, 1 second until the order managment window opens, 1 second until you hit the close order button, and 3-5 second slippage.

Congrats, you just wasted 23 seconds to close your losing order, in this time you could almost double your loss.

Whereas by using a predefined SL, you only had to wait only the 3-5 second for the slippage.

So 4 seconds vs 23 seconds? Which one is more practical and safe hmm ?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
Quoting Fractalist
{quote} But calling it "Common Sense" is nothing but an admission of failure. .
NOT !!

Quoting Fractalist
{quote}. I cannot prove to you that my idea is superior .
Oh !! OK then.

And you started trading in 1988 'eh ??
Did ya' like that land line phone and having to call your broker ??
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
Quoting Proximus
{quote} You want proof , fine. First of all, the math proof, since if you dont put a SL basically your RR goes down to this: TP reward / Margin Call Risk You cannot deny this, even if you manage to get the best system out there, there is still a remote chance for a MC Also if you close the trades anyway, just as Magix stated that he will close the losing trades.Supposing that you close the trades past the STOPLEVEL, there is no technical difference between the manual close and the SL. Its only a matter of risk: Huge spike, Huge volatility, which...

"Humans are slower than machines."

You are absolutely right. I don't care about execution speed like you do. Even when the trade goes bad, that does not mean "Exit Immediately" always. It is better to wait for the bounce. Sometimes the bounce fixes everything. Sometimes the entire problem goes away.

You assume over and over that just because the price moves far away that it will continue to move further. Data which HAS been proven indicates that currencies don't do that.

I see your point and understand that way of approaching money management. I used to do things your way. I just don't believe that is the ONLY way anymore. I have better results this way and I have never experienced the danger you are concerned about. Fair enough?
Quoting Fractalist
{quote} "Humans are slower than machines." You are absolutely right. I don't care about execution speed like you do. Even when the trade goes bad, that does not mean "Exit Immediately" always. It is better to wait for the bounce. Sometimes the bounce fixes everything. Sometimes the entire problem goes away. You assume over and over that just because the price moves far away that it will continue to move further. Data which HAS been proven indicates that currencies don't do that. I see your point and understand that way of approaching money management....
Not necessarly in 1 move, of course once the Bidders are too many the Askers will overwhelm them, or vice versa, but it can happen in steps.Not necessarly the price will go against you in 1 swift move or 1 candlestick.

It can zig-zag down in the opposite direction, without ever bouncing back to the initial point where you opened the order.Then what you do?

The price moves in a zig-zag path, like waves, and only in ranging market periods its possible to bounce back to the start.But then again, the system which he uses is based on S/D levels which are local extremes of the price, when in fact you have a higher probability for a rebounce if you enter at the median price between the S and the D level.

But still not a guarantee, trends can form, breakouts.So its really not wise to not put a SL, 90% of traders agree with this, if you dont believe me, create a thread about this and put a poll to it.

Besides, no sane professional trader would do this, banks, hedge funds, are very risk averse and have strict MM tehniques.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
Quoting Fractalist
{quote} So many assumptions in your thinking... 1) You are making assumptions about the level of leverage. .
So I'm "assuming" that you haven't been trading since 1988 ( as you stated). Isn't that before fractals (in trading) was relevant ??
Perhaps you could SO enlighten me ??
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
Quoting Turveyd
That was a fun read, magix jumping on all because there all wrong and only he is right lol I think he was honest for once about how he trades, basically he takes a position if it goes against he closes or adds more depending on how he feels really, there is no real method or logic behind it, he's just gambling pure and simple, but he reals out salesman speal to make it sound impressive. I have blown my account so many times over the years doing that, without I'd of been profitable along time ago. Sad part is, when he was a newbie, I got him started,...

Simple simple Turvy....

Can you please tell me how my methodology is different than any other trader? Yourself included...

I take a trade, if I get to not like the position, I will either exit at a loss or cost average, depending on range of market. Are you going to sit and say that you do anything different?

It would seem to me that your only, "Proof", of taking a trade is exactly the same.

The only thing that seems to differ, is our methodology in taking said trades and the fact that you need to wear water wings to keep you afloat.

And what am I selling and to whom?

This conversation is getting old...there is still no proof of me having ever sold anything to anybody at FF, because this has never happened. You know it, everybody else knows it, so why continuously beat this same dead horse?

If you want to talk shit, why not at least educate yourself in what I do and then make decision. You simply have no idea as to my trigger methodology and just continue to ramble on about how smart and fantastic you are but have never been able to make a consistent profit.

The only thing that is trying to be sold here is that you have something worth reading...perhaps to try and salvage any little remnant of dignity you have left.

I thought you were finished trolling, haven't you said this 10+ times already? And yet, you fire it back up because your complaints to Twee go unanswered...

Get a grip, Ace.

You're pathetic.

Let's have a looksie at your cost averaged trade here...

Attached Image
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
Quoting Magix
{quote} Simple simple Turvy.... Can you please tell me how my methodology is different than any other trader? Yourself included... I take a trade, if I get to not like the position, I will either exit at a loss or cost average, depending on range of market. Are you going to sit and say that you do anything different? It would seem to me that your only, "Proof", of taking a trade is exactly the same. The only thing that seems to differ, is our methodology in taking said trades and the fact that you need to wear water wings to keep you afloat. And...

The first 1/2 is 1/2 way civil, so I will comment on that to be fair.

Not a lot of difference, I have a strict method I stick to though, which you fail to understand because your not really interested mainly, part of the method is a break out side of my water wings is a good sign of a trend reversal or forming, so low probability of SL being hit, and if hit high probability it's a good exit and it won't just reverse on me, without both of these things nailed down, you might aswell not use a SL to be fair to you.

You won't believe that ofcourse, but feel free to download my template and go test for yourself!!

If you read my journal, my first trade was kinda 50/50 it might of headed to highs or dipped to low of the white envelope, I took a trade there then near the white envelope as per the method, the range held, I took a profit on both, life is good!!

The range White fails in a upward moving market, the lower range will most likely hold and also the yellow range which is where I enter depending on market speed, but as the direction is up, don't expect the upper white line to hold, expect it to get punched through nicely!!


You don't feel you need a solid method or plan, that's fine, don't bash people that do and have 1.



p.s. I never said there is anything wrong with cost averaging, within moderation, I'm allow 2 positions more and it gets out of control, I'm a fan of cost averaging, it's plainly stupid not to. BUT you need a fixed EXIT IMHO for longer term profits, or in my experience sooner or later, it's give back most of profits time ( been there done that, trying not to do it again, why I find preaching no SL so ridiculous )

Here is a stack of charts, with my methodology and also pretty good proof, this isn't random ( back on topic )

How about skipping all the childish play ground stuff and telling us exactly with specifics how you trade, like a normal trader, not like a sales man trying to sell a old knackered car
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Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
g/j is a bit static yet but hey ho, one can wait
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
this research certainly touches on my own findings regarding correlated pairs and combined volatility.unable to find the full paper and also dated somewhat.

Physicist Guannan Zhao, Ph.D. student at the University of Miami, and his collaborators have developed a mathematical model to describe the timing of price changes of currencies and the overall dynamics of the Foreign Exchange (FX) market. Zhao presented his findings in a keynote address on Saturday, March 12, at the second International Conference on Financial Theory and Engineering (ICFTE ), in Shanghai, China
The FX market is the largest financial market in the world. It is made up of buyers and sellers from all over the globe. Their combined actions determine the value of currencies at any given time. Understanding how the market behaves can be useful to researchers studying theoretical pricing, help investors develop new trading strategies and act as a guide to avoid future crises
The major participants in FX market are mostly big international, commercial banks, which have a retail currency exchange service and active FX trading business. Consequently, the researchers examined data gathered by HSBC Bank, in London, collected throughout individual days, on the timescale of seconds. This high frequency data allowed the scientists to study the market with great accuracy. The key finding is a multi-agent mathematical model that describes the timing of the price changes in the FX market.
"We studied data from the FX market and found an interesting fact: That the waiting time between price changes of different currencies follows a mathematical power law, and this power law is universal for all different kinds of currency pairs," says Zhao, a Ph.D. student in Physics, at the College of Arts and Sciences and a member of the of the Complexity research group, at UM. "We built up a model to explain the statistical pattern in the waiting time distribution. This model helps us understand the high frequency extremes in markets because it captures the general mechanics of FX trading and mimics its collective behavior."
Since currencies are traded against one another, the researchers looked at eight currency pairs. With data accurate to the second, they were able to describe the behavior of the price changes for each pair, any time of the day. For example, between 7:00 and 17:00, on May 13, 2010 London time, the least active pair was the EURNOK (the price of Euros with Norwegian krones), with 861 ask price changes in 10 hours, and the most active pair was the GBPUSD (the price of British pound sterling with U.S. dollars) with 14,862 ask price changes
Another interesting finding is the appearance of synchronicity in the behavior of pairs of currency rates. Like dancers in an elaborate choreography, living things seem to act in harmony. A school of fish gracefully moving through the water, people applauding at a concert, and fireflies flashing at night; all are examples of collective complex behavior, with crowds of individuals acting in sync.
"Synchronicity is a by-product of complexity and the key signature of what stops Life from being completely disorganized. It is what makes cells act together to form what we call an organ, such as a heart or a brain. It is what makes societies work for the common good instead of pure individualism. In other words, it is what makes life 'work' on all levels," says Neil Johnson, professor of physics and director of UM's Complexity research group, who is Zhao's Ph.D. supervisor and collaborated with him in this research project. "Synchronicity is never perfect, but it is better than pure random disorder."
The researchers looked at the overall dynamics of the FX market and found that synchronicity occurs in the form of currency pairs changing their rates within the same time frame. In the study, synchronicity was detected as a "collective rush to trade in a particular way at the same time." The researchers also observed that synchronicity increases with increased activity. The phenomenon can be seen as a double peak shape in the morning and early afternoon, with the low activity level at around 11:00 a.m., London time.
The researchers are working to further improve their model of price changes of currencies and hence create a full mathematical description of the synchronicity which they observe across the global FX market
Quoting diceman555
this research certainly touches on my own findings regarding correlated pairs and combined volatility.unable to find the full paper and also dated somewhat. Physicist Guannan Zhao, Ph.D. student at the University of Miami, and his collaborators have developed a mathematical model to describe the timing of price changes of currencies and the overall dynamics of the Foreign Exchange (FX) market. Zhao presented his findings in a keynote address on Saturday, March 12, at the second International Conference on Financial Theory and Engineering (ICFTE...
I think what you and this guy call Synchronicity, I call a trend?

For example, yesterday after Asia opened, I noticed all yen crosses where being shorted. It looked like a nice downtrend was starting. I took a short on Aud/jpy. Unfortunately, I came to late to the party...
Diceman 555, quite interesting. I think the computer age has highlighted this even more. One of the reasons arbitrage isnt seen in forex. Most interesting
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.

Quoting pbylina
{quote} I think what you and this guy call Synchronicity, I call a trend? For example, yesterday after Asia opened, I noticed all yen crosses where being shorted. It looked like a nice downtrend was starting. I took a short on Aud/jpy. Unfortunately, I came to late to the party...
hi pbylina,

don't mention the trend word on this thread that's worth a good 100 pages of a free for all, killing field.

yes when accompanied by market sync and increased volatility across the correlated group ideal entry point.if you continue to look for that harmony you will find opportunities to enter a given pair at the beginning of the move,especially from range.

I smooth this data out.which increases my probability.the market has two states regards to using correlated sync.single pair increased volatility normally due to news relevant to that pair or market synce and overall market sentiment.which is much safer as your trading with a convicted market.as the dr states you can see this.single currency volatility moves are often the result of liquidity short falls.
Quoting billytt
Diceman 555, quite interesting. I think the computer age has highlighted this even more. One of the reasons arbitrage isnt seen in forex. Most interesting
hi billytt,

yes it is very interesting and something ive been working with for somtime,its the first time ive seen any real studies done in this area.ill continue to follow its path
Hi and thank s Theredlion and PipMeUp (a compatriote if i understand well ^^) for this very interesting thread; my question is mainly for them, what you have to say to these guy who manage more than 4 000 billions https://www2.blackrock.com/us/financ...-stock-markets, and more generally to the hundreds or thousands of traders and funds managers who have outperformed their markets for decades ? Is this cohérent with emh ?
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