How many TP20, SL20 could you make (in a row)? [Group Challenge]

Ok guys, just tested the model quality.... and it appears, at least for now.. that we might get some TP20SL20 signals soon... with rather good winrate.. will see...
Here you can see the latest test... with just TP5 (before, after)... went pretty good imho... Hope we will have a success here... I plan to start hitting (testing) hard next week... and then analyse the trades, privately.. and then see/decide what signals, what certainty.. should I post here and/or open dedicated LIVE TE for this, HERE!
So if all goes well... expect the trades here... will be testing next week.. so wont be posting in this thread... to see the picture myself first...

P.S. you might also benefit from published trend forecast in the thread...

I think you can post it here. I prefer seeing them here than on TE. Well, just my opinion. If I may ask, how do you pick out such trades, what's your trigger? I'll check here more often next week and see if I can catch your signal or share one.

I might discuss it later, would just like to see if and how much juice is there vs luck.. before I bring some philosophy
Because as you are all aware... many people here tend to post some amazing out of the box trading philosophy, indicator etc... and are very good, for some time, usually with trading some temp chaotic rules... might be lucky with news.. and lastly.. hardest to see through... swing traders... and specially swing traders with maximum exposure... they swing it 200PIP+.. under it swings back for few PIPs... usually regardless which direction they entered buy/sell.. and TE might look impressive UNTIL maybe even one... trade.. gets LOCKED out of position, when trend establishes or when swing is too great for the leverage.. at which point they switch or ditch the TE

So with that being said... Without being secretive or anything.. I have shared quite some already.... I would much prefer to get to some GOOD LIVE TE return (or a good return-DD ratio or longtrem stability consisteny.. or what we are looking for EPIC RETURN.. grandslam-homerun return, x100-1000 - the one we are trying to hit here)... and than "preach"

But just for quickly.. my BASE is price prediction model, longterm and microsignals... One important component are fundamentals.. which are primary true for longertrends.. as for daily... or this micro signals... It is a combination of pattern recognition, checking if there are no high-impact news coming (if they are, it just more on the gambling.. that I try to avoid...), no "tweets" from the el presidente but the later is hardest to predict except when he is sleeping (if he does)...
But ok generally... for MICRO signals or those TP20SL20... I check PATTERN... check liquidy/volume... that are calculated in the spread.. so (variable) spread at my broker is rather good market of market conditions... Still waiting for the golden 0.9 that it was about 10years ago... And then I check the news, if there is anything going on... ussualy there are some rather linear mini-trends after high-impact news/tweets/posts/articles... so I try to AVOID or trade them.. and lastly.. if it checks with the overall MODEL.. longterm.. even better..

For the last signal.... the price was just so (much) above merlins average line... that I posted... market was rather calm, no long before closing (which is a bad thing for trading, but wanted to made a quick, just 5PIP test)... and the pattern seems to be indicating the short... I also had longertrend for confidence.. so even though it would be opened for the weekend, I knew that it might be hit eventually.. if the line is to be believed... I am sure it seemed as a buy for some.. maybe it would/could go above... at first.. but I was rather sure it will go down "eventually", because of the trend line/signal and micro signal... and some other things that I will discuss later... when/if we get F-car or FU position out of this

And tnx for the posts vs TE opinion, greatly appreciated and noted, will do so...

Nice. You got me keyed in. Indeed, I believe there is such a thing as almost 100% entry and exit. Let's see if we can get such high probability trades next week. Your percentage return is so nice on my eyes. Lol... I love green.

Tnx man.. Pretty amazing right... Yeah about the green... Resolving my LIVE TE return stat problem atm... it seems that whenever you deposit or withdraw->deposit... profits get divided to this new total deposits (even though you just gave withdrawals back)... resolving the issue now... my live TE was 171,5% yesterday.. but then I transferred money between accounts... and when I got it back... it was regarded as new deposit... I tested it again, to confirm the formula.. it divided even more This TE was for test anyway.. hence big DD etc... I am planing to make new one(s) anyway... One of them being TP20SL20.. to publish here...

I wasa just researching and thinking if we should make another TP20SL20 signal... or even SINGLE STRIKE (#2) (another thread)... I will decide tomorrow...
but most probably will test for the next week just to see what is the precision we can hope for... and BTW, to others also...
Just do your normal trades... with the aim to be as precise as possible and than in retrospect/analysis... see how many of them (in a row) would hit at TP20SL20...
Can you get more than 5? What is the occurance? Out of 100trades TP20SL20.. how many would be in a row, how many times... so that we can see the "balance sheet" of this... to see if it is worth burning cash for the probable next big hit

I think next week will be rather good representation... But i dont be posting live.. will do my own analysis... and then post.. It is stressfull as it is, without the pressure of live posting, exposed TE etc... But are looking forward to it later.. In a week I will decide if I should open LIVE? TEs for TP20SL20 aka BURNER, SINGLE STRIKE(s) aka SUPER BURNER - ANTIMATTER, some middle-leverage TE - SEMI-BURNER, INSTITUTIONAL style TE (aimed 10%.. at max 5% DD, max 2% exposure per trade... more likely 0.5%)... But all will be based on the SAME price prediciton model of 10years... The difference will be RISK MANAGEMENT, EXPOSURE, turning radius (SL), burner level etc.... So next week I will make like 10+ trades... and than in retrospect see what can be concluded.. to assert certainity at some, remove the outliers (around news) etc.. and see if we can realisticaly pre-select the ICE WINE, DRY GRAPE HARVEST, BERRY SELECTION For example... If I can see somewhat pattern/connection between certainty... and eliminate anomalieis (tweets, high-impact news)... we might be onto something.. I think we can realistically expect n=10 TP20SL20 trades... or at least n=5 a few times this year! even at SL25... if not better.. so at 400:1.. if 500:1 wouldn't go through... I am excited also...
I just want to see where this goes.. if it doesn't work, fine, I just won't have my peace before WE try....

Where are all the others that voted they can make n=20? Please post... Share at least some, so we can group/glue it to one epic series... to make some GOOD FACTOR

I am realisticaly expecting... that we could make like 5 n=5 series this year... in ONE in FIVE trials... or even SEVEN series (n=7)...
So for example...

n=7 is gold to me...
100USD in almost 9,000USD out.. so multiplication factor of 90.... that gives us 90 FREE TRIALS to break even.. rounded a bit Think about it! So if we hit it ONCE in 50 trials... still worth it.... 50x100 USD= 5,000USD and the 51 would give us 9,000USD... so 9,000USD-5,000USD=4.000USD... still 76% return... Which means... if we could try EVERY WEEK... in a YEAR.. and there is a good probability of it happening ONCE in a year... it would paid of
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.9%5E7

BUT
good occurance of n=3-5 would also be GOLD
for example
n=5...
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.9%5E7
100USD in, 2,500 USD out... multiplication factor of 25...

n=5 was DONE BEFORE, in this thread...
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.9%5E5
multiplication factor of x25... the question is, what would be the (expected) occurrence for future...

n=3 is rather realistically... multiplication factor of x7
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.9%5E3
If we could get n=3 series out of every 5 trials.. would still be worth it..
4 fail trials would cost.. 400 USD (at 100USD/trial)... and the 5th would give 100USD-700SD... the total sum would be 40%..
not bad..

So either we make smaller series with higher money maybe... If I could realistically expect/believe that the n=3-5 will happen..
I might even put 1,000USD in.. which would mean, 7,000USD out at n=3 only! https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1000*1.9%5E3
And, my favourite... 25,000USD out (25 thousand) at n=5 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1000*1.9%5E5
I think that would be the sweet spot for 80% certainity signals... at almost optimal conditions...
Can you imagine... giving 1k USD in... after 5 TP20SL20 trades... would get 25k OUT It would also give you the option to try again, 25times for higher

So yeah, this is what I am hoping for, n=3-5.. at least for first... and THAN! I would be able ti AIM for n=7 with 1k... If we can improve certainity for specialy berries.. 1k in, 90k out! What do you think? https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1000*1.9%5E7

And do not get me further... n=12 would be retirement... https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1000*1.9%5E12
But honestly.. I wouldn't have the balls to hold it till n=12 the first time... would pull at n=3-5 at first... to get me some money for RAINY DAYS... improve my FU position etc... but later I would be willing to risk more and more... On the other hand.. 100USD trials might be much easier.. but we would be wasting trials just to get to 1k USD.. Remember.. we would be "wasting" n=3.5 signal just to get from 100USD to 1k USD... where we could get from 1k->10k... So the key is to find optimal "n" to hope for and optimal DEPOSIT (risk per trial, for the series)

also note..
n5-6 would have been done at TP20SL25, so 400:1 at 10% stop.. so
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.7%5E6
factor 25...

So lets build the stat of trials together... to see the pattern.. history... how many TP20SL20 win series in a row can see AIM for.. what would be the record... what optimal level.. what the occurrence and what the overall "balance sheet" for example out of 100 trades... Would the loses be outweighed by profits? Can we optimise the certainty, eliminating some outliers around some anomalies maybe? Etc etc... Will do my personal stat next week, privately.. and than I shall see... Other please do make the same or post here... The more stat we have, the better... ATM we saw that n=5 can be done... the question is how many times (again)... vs trials...

I have decided to try to make about 10+ TP20SL20 next week.. I can clue you in... They will be SHORT
And I should then have some PICTURE... Maybe that would be enough for some conclusion, otherwise I tend to be in the 3w-3m range.. to make some picture analysis... and that is if there are no HAMMER interventions... like central banks playing tennis or pressing the finger on the scale etc... Should all goes well..
I might start posting TP20SL20 signals.. the week after the next... and always, REMEMBER... we just need to hit n=12 ONCE! or n=3-7 at least few times...
in a certain amount of trials... of course, for wins to out weight... Ok that would be it from my side, for now...

BTW I might post/link LIVE TE! for this TP20SL20... as soon as/if I get some (favourable) picture (confirmation/estimation)... to see what we might be operating with... expecting... yeah those initial LIVE posted trials.. were rather epic, at least to me... but now would need to check the occurrence of this.. that is the key...

So basically your whole account is your position (if you start with 100 $ you trade 0.56 lots - with 20 pips SL). This is a kinda interesting topic because if you don't have at least 100 000 $ - 300 000 $ account any "conservative" type of trading won't bring you any money. If you are conservative with 1000 or 10 000 $ account and let's say you make 30-50 % a year that's ridiculous (yes I know about compounding bla bla bla but the reality is that you're not gonna trade one account for 5-10 years and only compound). Ofc this method is very hard because you need everything to be perfect if you lose after 5 wins you are screwed. I'm interested to see how this thread will develop.

Tnx man... I smell at least 5x TP20SL20 for the NEXT WEEK... which I believe will be for SHORT.... Just have to find optimal entries.. and the (possible) trend will help also yeah 5 wins in a row would be a good compromise... You would have to throw only 100USD to get about 2,500USD out of it... so multiplication factor of x25...
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.9%5E5

Yes, 0.5lots for 100USD input (x500 at 500:1)

Not really... Yes, if you look it in a "traditional" (losing way... inside the deposit box... so with 100USD (x500)... if you lose, you will preserver 10-15% (10-15USD in this case... depending on the stop-out level.. 10% for SL20 to get through...). You would need almost 4 times to get back... if you hit 2 stop loss in sequence... your account will drop to 1% So you would need a good 7 trades... to get back to USD... But here is the beauty! Why bother? Expand the picture, beyond the box aka outside the box... If you lose, just forget the trade... specially if you lose 2 times in a row... Just deposit AGAIN, 100USD again The point is, to look the bigger picture.... What we are trying to do here is to make some stat, to get some picture... for example.. how many time out of like 10-100 trades... the winning streak happens, what would be the record.. what PEAK series repeats itself.. is there a pattern... AND how many losing streaks... in a row... or just enough to break the chain... And then estimate the OVERALL balance... Do you see?

Or in other words:
And you are not necessarily screwed... if you put only 100USD... Yeah... at 1k IN.. you would get 25k OUT some good money right?
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1000*1.9%5E5

If you had the optimal positions, all systems nominal, all conditions as perfect as possible, certainty above 90%... you could risk 10k and retire (FX) with 250k
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10000*1.9%5E5

But again, you are not not necessarily screwed, this is what most people fail to recognise (the potential) in any activity (talking to beautiful women, starting up companies).. its a number games (ask business angels.. just 10% of it is worth it, no matter how carefully they select the berries.. its just stat.. but in the overall picture it is worth it)... the info is what is the further win probability, occurrence for n=5 series for example... For every series that do hit n=5..
you got yourself 25 trials So you would only have to catch the, for example, n=5 strikes... more often than once of every 25 trials I estimate that out of every 10 trials... we could STRIKE some n=5... once every 5 trials?

Hope the math is correct, I calculated quickly.... but you do get the picture... Guideline is.. Do not be afraid to fail, because you will (the question is when; at this TP20SL20 at least)! The question is... IS IT worth it (do gains outweight the loses)?
Forget all other performance stat for this kind of trading... The important is just the ENDGAME... How many trials CAN be done in a row? The current record in this thread is 5 for TP20SL20 or 6 for TP20SL25 (yeah we might see that maybe the many more trades would go through at SL25... so 400:1 at 10% stop...). So just please post, then we shall see if there is any pattern, specially between estimated certainty and win... Ok I hope you got the picture... We just have to have more profits than loses, thats it... I suspect the concesus would be n=5... but sometimes even n=7... n=12 is holy grail.... because 100USD->200k USD Not the focus now TBH.. unless some 90% certainity CLEAN signals would come... and go almost STRAIGHT down... (linear)... BTW the SPEED is also important... just found out some edge that we can get if we can close the trade within an hour... (win or loss!)... But I can not share it here atm.. because it might be CLOSED... Just need to build stat first and than we shall see if there is ANYTHING we can use... so far, judging by posts so far.. it went TOO GOOD tbh... am interested in overall picture after like 100 signals or so.. and than maybe eliminate some outliers (if tweets etc.. happen while in trade) etc.. so we can be careful about those etc...

Hope you get the picture by now... I would love to TAKE n=5 (give us 25 trials) streaks... or n=3 (give us 7 trials)... The important thing is either STAT or CERTAINTY (correlation)... at rather low rate.. I would not be risking more than 100USD per INITIAL trial... but if we can really see the pattern, berries... for high prob. trades... I would risk 1k also... and roll it to 3 (7k out) or 5 even (25k)... Ok thats it

P.S. The next week should bring some data I hope.. Just trade and post if you can.. or just trade as you do.. and see how many trades were hit within SL20.. for TP20+... to get some picture of what can be done...

I've tried this on a simulator, and even with 1:500 leverage I could only risk 75 % of my account per trade. So n5=18k (starting balance=1000$ sl20-tp20). It's still a good return. If you want n5= 25 000 you must set tp at 24pips. I don't have an excel spreadsheet but I can tell that even 5 in a row is difficult (once it's live you must consider emotions and overall psychology). As you said its all numbers game, luck, and knowledge. Realistically with n5, you should have 18 free trials unless you go for a 24pip target. If you prepare yourself mentally and practice on demo a loot, this is doable 100 %.

Very interesting, thank you for making this thread auricforecas
Could you provide your mt4 investor pw so I can follow you easily instead of refreshing this page for entries?
Thanks

short cock tp15,

eurusd that is, short... tp15 from now, 70cert

tp is 1.1169

shorted, thank you very much
What does 70cert means?

80% certain

Ok lets wait with mt4 investor password... for now.. I think if you subscribe to this thread or to me, you do receive instant msg when I post, no?
If not, we will find a way, later... still beta (f) test mode atm

90%

Can anyone of you actually feel the market almost touching the price? 5PIPs to go... It would have already, just this STALL is killing it...
On the plus side, if we hold it, we will get a goodnight bonus swap/rollover...

Although I believe the price is LOCKED... I would recommend to PULL any real money (at so tight leverage from this trade.. Too much exposure atm... the market volume is close to ZERO... one spike can stop SL20 out... ATM 15PIPs profit.. I entered 5PIP before I posted here... btw... will have to find better way to notify you (later), should this work... so pulling out, might re-enter tomorrow (morning maybe... Broker going nuts... widening spread af... so the price is pretty much in STALL...

Pretty clean signal though (within 5PIP error.. meaning how much counter it went before going in predicted direction aka tightest SL possible as of now)... if you entered... would still have like 10PIPs+ at 500:1 atm!

PULL IT, re-enter at better optimal conditions (for TP20SL20 at least)... 1.1169 is TARGET LOCKED... 99%... Just with TP20SL20 in mind.. to much of exposure with REAL money atm... take care... Will still leave this 6th signal from me for virtual statistics... Summary follows, after this is done...

ok it went through... summary follows,
signal was a success

just a quick glance... record atm still 4/4 for me, 5/5 for group... at tp20sl20... 5/6 of mine went through, 6/7 for group... if we take sl25 into consideration... all 6/6 ofmine or 7/7 of a group would go through... at tp20sl25, so at 400:1 10-15% stop. Think about the potential!

Last #6 started with 70% certainty->80%->90%, pull overnight... but win...

that would be it people, your turn or wait for private testing conclusuion.. in few weeks/months...