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SilentFathers Trading Ideas

Quoting Jimmyf
{quote} Hi Hepsibah, can you indicate what your confirmation was to enter the trades you made going short targeting the spikes lower? thanks in advance.
Hope this helps. It is usually clear if the tf you are looking at is trending or in consolidation. If it is trending I only look for spike touches in the direction of the trend, if it is consolidation it will tend to bounce between the upper and lower spikes, maybe not quite reaching either but definitely moving towards them. Consolidation periods are characterised by top and bottom spikes more or less in a horizontal line with often not much room between top and bottom.
[Read this several times and then look at charts until you see it. Once you've seen it.....$$$]
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I took the next image a little while ago and got sidetracked into doing something else

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since then we have had a sudden move up so I guess we know exactly where it is going
We are in consolidation now on H4 so expect some up and down movement around this line until it makes its direction clear

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Quoting hepsibah
I took the next image a little while ago and got sidetracked into doing something else {image} since then we have had a sudden move up so I guess we know exactly where it is going We are in consolidation now on H4 so expect some up and down movement around this line until it makes its direction clear {image}
But note that the upper channel dipped slightly below the lower channel so there is a slight bias to the short side for the moment
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} But note that the upper channel dipped slightly below the lower channel so there is a slight bias to the short side for the moment
Thanks hepsibah, much appreciated
This is becoming one of my favourite patterns (I call it flat bottom). I am in short, let's see.
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Quoting hepsibah
{quote} I'm not sure what approach you are taking but this is some of the easiest money I have ever made trading manually. Identifying the trend is key for my strategy - after that I wait for spikes in the channel in the appropriate direction to appear and trade towards them. I've tried to show the strategy in the chart and my trades so far this morning (it still has a bit further to go down). Ultimate SL is a trend change but putting in a BE after the move covers you. Price usually reaches the spike but I tend to place the TP a few pips above as...
Thank you hepsibah for your patience to my questions
Now you write:
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But earlier you wrote:
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And I very often got something like this:
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How to filter? What don't I see that you see?
Quoting since80808
{quote} Thank you hepsibah for your patience to my questions As I can see you ususally get this pattern\signal: {image} But I always got something like this: {image} How to filter? What don't I see that you see?
I may answer shortly for hepsibah ... . Many times price comes back to the place the channels cross.. .. Best to use are EU for example or other less trending pairs.... You just have to buy or sell if this occurs .... If channels cross this doesn't necessarily mean that trend change like on your example but price came back to the spike
Quoting Patje
{quote} If channels cross this doesn't necessarily mean that trend change
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Quoting Patje
but price came back to the spike
SO, If channels cross, we have to wait for
A. trend change
or
B. price came back to the spike
?
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A or B?
Guys, I'm strongly interested in "SF ideas" and I don't crtique them. I just try to make system from these ideas in my mind: if this can be "easiest money I have ever made trading manually" - how to know will trend change or back?
Quoting since80808
{quote} Thank you hepsibah for your patience to my questions Now you write: {image} But earlier you wrote: {image} And I very often got something like this: {image} How to filter? What don't I see that you see?
I'm not sure I'm going to be able to find any other words to describe it if what I showed in post #441 doesn't make it clear. It's just what I see and trade and it works for me but there are plenty of things other people post (like lots of trendlines) that I can't see at all.

I don't filter at all other than, when I see a potential opportunity, I make sure there is sufficient room to make a profit before price goes where think it will go.
Basically, there are two types of channel touch/crosses:

1. One is where the market is in a consolidation phase where both the upper and the lower channels make a spike at almost the same price and then continue in their respective directions. The spikes have to be almost exactly in line. In consolidation you can expect price to bounce back to the touch point until it shows you the direction it is going to move in

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2. another is where one channel crosses the high/low point of the other and continues in that direction. This time you are being shown a definitive trend and then can trade towards spikes in that direction

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And of course they don't all work out since there are no certainties in this game. But you will know if you are wrong if there is a trend cross and you are on the wrong end. You just take the hit and wait for the next one because, if you take the time to look back through the charts for these patterns, you will see them over and over again.

There are also some other patterns that i am seeing very clearly but if you just concentrate for the moment on finding consolidation and trending crosses until you can see them in your sleep you should be able to make some money.

If I get some time, I will create a pdf with examples of the different patterns I am using but that may have to wait for a week or so.
Quoting hepsibah
there are two types of channel touch/crosses
Thank you again. I will try to see the difference.
Quoting hepsibah
This is becoming one of my favourite patterns (I call it flat bottom). I am in short, let's see. {image}
SL as I can see
Surprising how something that seems so simple can become confusing when you first go to try it!

However hepsibah has done a great job in presenting his ideas in an easy to follow manner. Thank you.

Just need to give the demo account a workout until it becomes second nature.
Good Trading
Quoting since80808
{quote} SL as I can see
Yes, that one didn't work but it could be coming back now. I'll explain flat bottoms at a later stage, don't want to muddy the waters too much too soon.
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} Yes, that one didn't work but it could be coming back now. I'll explain flat bottoms at a later stage, don't want to muddy the waters too much too soon.
Cool. I am curious what have you found mate. Will check at home, now I am at work. Hehe, damn loans. Yeah.. Kinda wanted to explain my inactivity. Will be back soon. Sadly I will need to work somewhere else before doing anything else.

See You Guys.
SF
And Hepsibah, You understand what I use and used very well. Good job. Maybe You will find something new since after x years I can't see anything new. Well I can but time it takes is much much longer.

SF
missed this morning's trading (dentist ) and now is not the best time but I have entered a small position on EU 1min to try to explain the logic I am using.

The lower channel crossed over the upper at 13.59 broker time (GMT+2). If the lower channel had turned back down and formed a spike (i.e. followed the dotted line I have drawn) I would have treated it as a consolidation touch but it continued upwards and so I assume an upward trend and look for the next spike on the upper channel to enter. As it happens, there was only a small trend up before it did go into a consolidation pattern but the trend is still up so I entered another long at the next upper spike.

Now I wait. I have TP set at the first spike and I will close both at a loss if the trend turns down.
Hope that makes sense.

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It would be nice to know if anyone is seeing these the same way I am
Quoting hepsibah
missed this morning's trading (dentist ) and now is not the best time but I have entered a small position on EU 1min to try to explain the logic I am using. The lower channel crossed over the upper at 13.59 broker time (GMT+2). If the lower channel had turned back down and formed a spike (i.e. followed the dotted line I have drawn) I would have treated it as a consolidation touch but it continued upwards and so I assume an upward trend and look for the next spike on the upper channel to enter. As it happens, there was only a small trend...
Haha. The trades closed while I was typing
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Here is another, related situation it is worth looking out for. I call it a momentum spike because price takes off quickly in the current trend direction then has a pause while a small spike in the trend direction channel is formed. Entry is when the spike is confirmed and tp is at the peak of the spike.

This one formed after the news but they are very common during the Frankfurt and London opening hours. Have a look back through the charts.
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Quoting hepsibah
missed this morning's trading (dentist ) and now is not the best time but I have entered a small position on EU 1min to try to explain the logic I am using. The lower channel crossed over the upper at 13.59 broker time (GMT+2). If the lower channel had turned back down and formed a spike (i.e. followed the dotted line I have drawn) I would have treated it as a consolidation touch but it continued upwards and so I assume an upward trend and look for the next spike on the upper channel to enter. As it happens, there was only a small trend...
I understand your point and entries. However I still cannot forget that question in my head... "There is a way to get these in advance. But how?!"

I can say that you guys can know in advance where price will reverse and for how much pips. However again, it is extremely unlikely to find it before it happens since you need lot of trendlines. I also believe that we can predict where price will touch the bands so we could use it as 100% signal that will give us X pips in a few seconds/minutes, since as someone already noticed, price barely touches the bands. But when this happens, price will move like a crazy. And funny thing about this is that when price touches the lower band, it moves up and vice versa.

Think about it.

Oh, we also have other edge. And those are the trendlines from the indicator itself. Since price always react on those somehow. You can get a scalp or profitable long term trade without any drawdown and even on daily chart. Notice that it will be harder on bigger TF's. Will explain later.

SF
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