Hi all...
I found this paradox... I have been doing HUNDREDS of automated backtests....
I've found these scary things:
a)more indicators does not nessesary means better results (I did this before I calculated indicator correlations). I tried a to program Elders trend following system and from what I remember, I stoped the idea...
b) Stop loss values and trailing stops changed has had drastic effects on my results....
c)Recently for my stops/exits (a crucial part) I began to use "adaptive" values rather than preset numbers... Didn't help much except I could test the strategy on numerous markets without having to guess point B.
I also manually went through a certain cool fibonacci strategy that I've thought off... Again it had variable exits (price projections).... It worked well in 2005 on many currencies, even EUR/PLN (or something like that)... I was excited, "I am going to shovel money with my excavator!!!" yet I started checking it from 2002 and it bombed....
Many automated trading systems have shown GREAT results for some period, and totally flushed the deposit on the next.... Hmmm... So I might have had 90-99% winning percentage for some time, but eventually a series of lossess have put the system into a minus....
Then I ran a totally random system which was constantly in the market, reversing at trailing stops and stoplossess (which were super tight).... Guess what, after a year it came out in minor pluses....
HMMMMM................... A paradox....
Anyone can shed some light?
I found this paradox... I have been doing HUNDREDS of automated backtests....
I've found these scary things:
a)more indicators does not nessesary means better results (I did this before I calculated indicator correlations). I tried a to program Elders trend following system and from what I remember, I stoped the idea...
b) Stop loss values and trailing stops changed has had drastic effects on my results....
c)Recently for my stops/exits (a crucial part) I began to use "adaptive" values rather than preset numbers... Didn't help much except I could test the strategy on numerous markets without having to guess point B.
I also manually went through a certain cool fibonacci strategy that I've thought off... Again it had variable exits (price projections).... It worked well in 2005 on many currencies, even EUR/PLN (or something like that)... I was excited, "I am going to shovel money with my excavator!!!" yet I started checking it from 2002 and it bombed....
Many automated trading systems have shown GREAT results for some period, and totally flushed the deposit on the next.... Hmmm... So I might have had 90-99% winning percentage for some time, but eventually a series of lossess have put the system into a minus....
Then I ran a totally random system which was constantly in the market, reversing at trailing stops and stoplossess (which were super tight).... Guess what, after a year it came out in minor pluses....
HMMMMM................... A paradox....
Anyone can shed some light?