Morning Briefing

9 Nov 23.0853 IST or 0323 GMT or 2223 EST

Good Morning!


The Dollar Index has turned down after facing rejections from 106 whereas the Euro has bounced back as the support at 1.0650 has held well. EURJPY has scope to test 162 from where a decline looks possible. USDJPY can test 151.63-152 on the upside. The Aussie and Pound look bearish below 0.6450 and 1.24 respectively. USDCNY is rising steadily and has scope to target further upside while above 7.25/26. USDRUB is bearish while below 94/93. USDINR may continue trade between 83.20-83.30. The EURINR can possibly trade within 88.50-89.50 for the near term.

Dow Jones need a sustained break above 34200 to negate the danger of seeing a fall back. DAX has scope to test 15400-15500 before turning lower from there. Nifty upside looks capped at 19500-19600. Nikkei has bounced back as the support at 32000 has held well as expected. Shanghai remains stable but outlook remains bullish while above the support at 3025.

The US Treasury and the German yields are coming down in line with our expectation. There is room for both the yields to fall more from here to test their supports. After that a fresh rise is possible. The 10Yr is coming down as expected and can fall more. But the 5Yr has support coming up. We will have to wait and watch whether that support is holding or not.

Crude prices and Natural Gas are near their crucial support which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back from there. Gold, Silver and Copper remains bearish for the near term.


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10 Nov 23.0852 IST or 0322 GMT or 2222 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index could hold below 106, taking the Euro up towards 1.07. EURJPY can test 162 and possibly face an initial decline while USDJPY is also headed towards resistance at 152 from where a decline is expected. The Aussie is strongly bearish for a fall to 0.63 but Pound may see a short bounce from 1.22 now but has scope for an eventual fall towards 1.21. USDCNY can rise slowly towards 7.30/32. USDRUB could also fall slowly towards 90. USDINR and EURINR are likely to remain range bound within 83.20-83.30 and 88.50-89.50 respectively.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. The yields can still reverse lower again after moving up to test their resistances. We expect one leg of fall to test their support before a fresh rise happens. The German yields have bounced but are likely to fall back again to test their support. The 10Yr GoI remains weak to fall more. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand looks mixed and is hovering above a key support.

Dow Jones has fallen as the resistance at 34200 has held well. View is bearish while below 34200. DAX has scope to test 15400-15500 before turning lower from there. Nifty has declined below 19400 and can fall further while below the resistance at 19500-19600. Nikkei is consolidating within 32800-32000 range. Shanghai has fallen towards the support at 3025, which may hold and produce a bounce back to higher levels.

Crude prices and Natural Gas have scope to bounce back if the support at $79-78.5 (Brent), $75-74 (WTI) and 3.0-2.9 (Natural Gas) respectively held well. Gold, Silver and Copper still looks vulnerable to test their support before a bounce back can be seen.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

13 Nov 23.0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2221 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index could hold below 106, taking the Euro up towards 1.07 before a reversal is seen. EURJPY needs to sustain a rise above 162 to head towards 163/165 while USDJPY is also headed towards crucial resistance at 152, a break above which if seen will be surprisingly bullish else can see an expected decline towards 151/150. The Aussie is strongly bearish for a fall to 0.63 but Pound may see a short bounce from 1.22 now before eventually falling towards 1.21. USDCNY can rise slowly towards 7.30/32. USDRUB could trade within 93-90 for the near term. USDINR saw a rise to 83.45 post an outage on the Refinitiv FX trading platform and could open with a gap down today in presence of the RBI to trade near 83.30/20 again. EURINR can trade between 89.50-88.50 for this week.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. A further rise from here looks possible this week. Broadly, the yields can consolidate in a range for some time. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have risen further. While they sustain this momentum, more rise could be seen this week. The 10Yr GoI has an immediate resistance which has to be broken to move further up. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand has room to rise as the resistance is slightly away from current levels.

Dow Jones has risen well above 34200 and needs a strong follow-through rise from here to strength the momentum. DAX outlook is bearish while below the resistance at 15400-15500. Nifty closed above 19500 in the Muhurat trading session but needs to surpass the resistance at 19600 to negate our bearish view. Nikkei has inched up keeping our bullish view intact. Shanghai remains subdued but while above the support at 3025, view will remains bullish.

Crude prices and Natural Gas have risen back well as the support at $79-78.5 (Brent), $75-74 (WTI) and 3.0-2.9 (Natural Gas) respectively held well as expected. Gold, Silver and Copper continues to dip and have scope to fall towards their immediate support.


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15 Nov 23.0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2220 EST

Good Morning!

US CPI data came in softer than expected, surprising the markets and leading to sharp depreciation in the Dollar Index against major currency basket. The Dollar Index and Euro may extend to 103 and 1.0950 if current momentum is intact else may face reversal over the next few sessions. EURJPY continues to remain bullish towards 165/166. USDJPY is holding below resistance at 152 and could bounce from 150. Failure to bounce from 150 can drag it towards 148. Aussie has risen sharply from 0.6350 itself and could trade within 0.6350-0.6550. Pound could decline from 1.2550/1.26 in the near term. USDCNY is bearish towards 7.22/20 while below 7.28/30. USDRUB can bounce from 90/89 towards 93/94 else a break below 89 is needed for further bearishness. EURINR can be bullish towards 91/92. USDINR should fall below 83.10 today on strength in the Euro and Chinese Yuan but we need to see if the RBI allows the fall to happen.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after the inflation data release yesterday. The US Headline CPI rose 3.23% (YoY) in October, down from 3.69% a month ago. The Core CPI rose 4.02% (YoY) down from 4.13% over the same period. Key supports are coming up for the yields which can be tested. The price action thereafter will need a close watch for a reversal. The German yields have declined sharply and have more room to fall from here. The 10Yr GoI remains vulnerable to fall while it remains below its immediate resistance. The 5Yr GoI looks mixed and can oscillate in a narrow range.

Dow Jones looks bullish for the near term. DAX has surged above 15500 and a further rise above 15650 is needed to negate our bearish view. Nifty can rise back taking cues from the global markets. Nikkei has entered into the crucial resistance zone and can witness a fall if that holds well. Shanghai has risen back as the support at 3025 held well and looks bullish to target further highs.

Brent and WTI have come down after facing their immediate resistance at $84 and $80 respectively and while below these resistance, prices can dip further. Gold, Silver and Copper have surged after the release of lower than expected US CPI which came in at 3.23% for Oct-23 than market expectation of 3.78%. Natural Gas is to remain ranged while below 3.30.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

16 Nov 23. 0859 IST or 0329 GMT or 2229 EST

Good Morning!

The Markets see a corrective movement after the sharp volatility that seeped in after the US CPI data released earlier this week. The Dollar Index holds above 104 and can test 105-105.50 while Euro has fallen from 1.09 and could test 1.08/1.0750 soon. EURJPY continues to remain bullish towards 165/166. USDJPY holds above 150 and could trade within 152-150 for some time. Aussie could trade within 0.6350-0.6550. The pound fall towards 1.23 while below 1.2550. USDCNY can rise back towards 7.30 while above 7.22. USDRUB has bounced well from 88 and could have scope to see a slow rise towards 93/94 soon. EURINR has dipped slightly and can test 89.50 while below 91. USDINR can rise towards the 83.20/30 zone again.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The downside from here is limited. We can expect the yields to remain above their supports. Overall, the Treasury yields can remain in a broad range for some time. The German yields have also bounced back. But one more leg of fall is likely to be seen before a sustained rise happens. The 10Yr GoI is coming down as expected. The 5Yr has broken its crucial supports and looks vulnerable to fall more.

Dow Jones, DAX and Nifty looks bullish for the near term. Nikkei has fallen back as the resistance at 33500 has held well. Shanghai has declined towards 3050 but downside could be limited to 3025.

Brent and WTI continues to dip and have scope to revisit their immediate support in the near term. Gold has declined after facing rejection from 1980. Whereas Silver and Copper have risen further and looks bullish to rise towards their immediate resistance. Natural Gas looks range bound within 3.3-2.9.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

17 Nov 23. 0856 IST or 0326 GMT or 2226 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index holds above 104 and could show some stability before moving on either side while Euro also holds below 1.09, could range within 1.08-1.09 before attempting to move up. EURJPY could see a small corrective fall before moving towards 165/166. USDJPY holds above 150 and could trade within 152-150 for some time. Aussie could trade within 0.6350-0.6550 within which a fall towards the lower end of the range looks highly possible. Pound could test support at 1.23 before bouncing back to higher levels. Watch price action at 88 on USDRUB which if breaks can be strongly bearish. USDCNY could hover near 7.25, view remains bearish below 7.30. EURINR could trade within 91-89.50 while USDINR can trade within 83.10-83.30.

The US Treasury yields have come down again. The yields can test their supports first and then move up again. The German yields are coming down in line with our expectations. There is room to fall more from here before a reversal is seen. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remained stable. They look vulnerable to fall further from current levels.

Dow Jones can see a short-lived correction before heading higher. DAX remains bullish for the near term. Nifty can rise towards 20000 levels while above 19500. Nikkei is hovering below the resistance at 33500. Need to see if Nikkei breaks higher or falls back from there. Shanghai has inch down further but downside could be limited to 3025.

Brent and WTI have declined sharply below their immediate support and look bearish to test their next key support before a bounce back can happen. Gold has broken above 1980 and while this break sustain, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Silver continues to rise and remains bullish to target further highs. Copper can dip to 3.65 while below 3.75. Natural Gas remains range bound within 3.3-2.9.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

20 Nov 23. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2221 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index looks weak towards 103 while Euro may rise to 1.10 while above 1.09. EURJPY could see a small corrective fall to 161 before moving towards 165/166 in the medium term. USDJPY has broken below 150 and could head towards 148. A top seems to have been made at 152. Aussie needs to break above 0.6550 to move higher towards 0.66/67 while Pound is slowly inching up towards 1.26. Watch price action at 88 on USDRUB which if breaks can be strongly bearish. USDCNY plunged sharply and could fall further to 7.15/10 while below 7.20. EURINR has scope to slowly rise towards 92 while USDINR remains stuck within 83.00/10-83.30.

The US Treasury yields are hovering above their key supports. They have to sustain above their support to avoid more fall and keep alive the chances of rising from here. The German yields can dip to test their supports first and then can reverse higher. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are looking weak. They have room to fall more from here.

Dow Jones can see a test of 35400-35500 on the upside before a reversal can happen. DAX remains bullish for the near term. Nifty broder outlook will remain bullish while above the support at 19500. Nikkei lacks strength to rise above the resistance at 33500. Shanghai has bounced back as the support at 3025 held well and can rise further on the upside.

Brent and WTI have risen back sharply but have to overcome the resistance ahead to reduce the downside pressure. Gold has dipped slight but outlook will remain bullish while above the support at 1960. Silver has fallen back failing to rise above 24.30 and can dip further if it remains below 24. Copper look bullish for a test of 3.80. Natural Gas has declined towards its immediate support at 2.9. Need to see if that holds or not.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

21 Nov 23. 0844 IST or 0314 GMT or 2214 EST

Good Morning!

Currencies are trading strong against the falling Dollar which could continue for the rest of the month as Dollar Index heads towards 102.50-102. Euro needs to break above 1.10 to head higher. EURJPY and USDJPY can fall to 160 and 146/145 respectively while Aussie and Pound look bullish for a potential rise to 0.66/67 and 1.26/28. USDRUB can bounce back while above 88. USDCNY is bearish to 7.10/7.05. EURINR has scope to slowly rise towards 92 before reversing from there while USDINR seems to be breaking above 83.30 contrary to the global currency strength seen against the US Dollar. No positive impact is seen on the Rupee so far as the RBI clearly seems to be controlling the movement. Instead, a break above 83.30/35 if sustains could take it towards fresh resistance at 83.50.

The US Treasury yields have declined and are poised near their key supports. A break below the support can drag them further lower in the coming days. The German yields have room to fall further from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced back. The 10Yr has resistance that can cap the upside and take it down again. The 5Yr on the other hand looks mixed as it is back into its earlier sideways range.

Dow Jones can test 35400-35500 on the upside. DAX has dipped slightly but broader outlook remains bullish. Nifty can trade within 19500-19850 range for some time. Nikkei seems to be turning lower and can fall while below the resistance at 33500. Shanghai has risen further and remains bullish to target further highs.

Brent has risen above its resistance and looks bullish to move up further from here whereas WTI is attempting to rise above its resistance and has scope to target next key resistance in the near term. Gold and Silver have bounced back keeping our overall bullish view intact. Copper is heading towards 3.85 which if holds can lead to a fall back towards 3.75. Natural Gas continues to fall and has scope to test 2.8-2.7 before a bounce back can happen.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

22 Nov 23. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2221 EST

Good Morning!

Some volatility was seen on the Dollar Index, Euro and USDJPY yesterday after the FOMC minutes was released but seems to have subdued impact on the markets. Sell off in Dollar Index triggered after the recent US inflation data release may continue to push the index down to 102 or lower while Euro can hold below 1.10 and USDJPY can fall to 148/146 before showing some reversal. EURJPY can fall to 161/160 while Aussie and Pound look bullish for a potential rise to 0.66/67 and 1.26/28. However, there could be some initial pause from 0.66 and 1.26 before the upper targets are met. USDRUB needs a bounce back from 88 else could be strongly bearish. USDCNY is bearish to 7.10/7.05. EURINR has fallen while below resistance at 92 and could now be headed towards 90.50-90 while USDINR could head towards 83.50 while it sustains trade above 83.30.

The US Treasury yields are poised at their crucial support. A strong rise from here would be bullish and will avoid the danger of seeing an extended fall. The German yields are coming down as expected. They have room to test their supports after which a reversal is possible. The 10Yr GoI can rise further if it breaks above the immediate resistance and then fallback again. The 5Yr GoI can move up within its sideways range.

Dow Jones has dipped slightly but broder outlook remains bullish for a test of 35400-35500 on the upside. DAX is stable and may consolidation between 15800 and 16000 for some time. Nifty has risen within its sideways range but needs a decisive break on the upside to strengthen the momentum further. Nikkei outlook is mixed. Shanghai can fall towards 3025 before rising back from there.

Brent and WTI remains stable but view is bullish for a rise towards their resistance in the near term. Gold and Silver outlook remain bullish. Copper has dipped from levels below 3.85 and if it sustains below 3.85, a further fall can seen. Natural Gas remains subdued and has scope to test 2.8-2.7 before a bounce back can happen.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

23 Nov 23. 0858 IST or 0328 GMT or 2228 EST

Good Morning!

Some ranged movement is seen across most currencies. Dollar Index could be potentially bearish to 102-101.50 while below 104.50. Euro can test 1.0950-1.10 before reversing strongly from there. EURJPY can range within the broad 164-159 region while USDJPY can rise to 150 or slightly higher before falling to 148/147 again. Aussie and Pound look bullish for a potential rise to 0.66/67 and 1.26/28. However, there could be some initial pause from 0.66 and 1.26 before the upper targets are met. USDRUB could trade within 88-89. USDCNY is bearish to 7.10/7.05. EURINR could trade within 91-90 while USDINR could be seen within 83.25-83.40 for the next 2-sessions.

The US Treasury yields are hovering around their crucial support. A strong rise from here is needed to avoid an extended fall and become bullish. The German yields remain lower. They can fall further from here and test their support. Thereafter a fresh rise is possible. The 10Yr looks vulnerable to dip further while the 5Yr GoI looks mixed, and range bound.

Dow Jones has risen well above 35000 keeping our bullish view intact for a test of 35400-35500 on the upside. DAX is rising within its sideways range. Nifty remains bullish to see a break on the upper end of the 19850-19500 range. Shanghai has dipped in line with expectations but while it remains above 3025, a rally can be seen in the coming days.

Brent and WTI fell sharply to $78.41 and $73.84 respectively yesterday over the news that OPEC+ meeting this weekend has been postponed to the 30th of November due to Saudi Arabia's discontent with other members' oil production levels. Crude prices also fell on Wednesday's weekly EIA data, which revealed that crude inventories have increased more than expected. Gold lacks strength to rise above 2000 but outlook will remain bullish as long as it holds above 1980-1960. Silver appears range bound. Copper has declined as expected and can fall more in the near term. Natural Gas has scope to bounce back while above the support at 2.8-2.7.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

24 Nov 23. 0846 IST or 0316 GMT or 2216 EST

Good Morning!

Currencies remain stable today with not much volatility. The dollar Index continues trade below 104.50 with downward bias intact for a fall to 102 while Euro can rise to 1.10 above 1.0850. EURJPY can range within the broad 164-159 region while USDJPY can rise to 150 or slightly higher before falling to 148/147 again. Aussie and Pound could hold below 0.66 and 1.26 for the near term. USDRUB continues trade within 88-89. USDCNY is bearish to 7.10/7.05 while below 7.16/20. EURINR could trade between 91.50-90.50 while USDINR could be seen within 83.25-83.40 for the next few sessions.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The support on the yields is holding well. A strong follow-through rise from here will turn the outlook bullish to see higher levels. The German yields have also risen back well. Need to see if it can sustain and avoid a fall back. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a narrow sideways range for some time.

Dow Jones was closed yesterday. DAX has come up to its upper end of the range and has scope to break on the upside. Nifty lacks momentum to rise above 19850 but bias remains positive to see a break above it and rise on the upside. Nikkei has broken sharply above its resistance at 33500 and looks bullish to target new highs. Shanghai appears ranged.

Brent and WTI needs to hold above their immediate support to avoid the danger of falling again. Gold lacks strength to rise above 2000 but outlook will remain bullish as long as it holds above 1980-1960. Silver is to remain range bound for a while. Copper is bearish for a fall while below 3.85. Natural Gas has risen as the mentioned support at 2.8 has held well.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

28 Nov 23. 0845 IST or 0315 GMT or 2215 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index resumes fall targeting 102-101.50 while Euro is bullish for a rise to 1.10. EURJPY is bearish to 161/160 while below 164. USDJPY can test 148/147 before pausing but overall view is bearish below 150. USDCNY has potential to fall to 7.10/05. Aussie and Pound have scope to rise towards 0.67 and 1.27/28 respectively as initial hurdle at 0.66 and 1.26 has been broken on the upside. USDRUB could trade within 87-90 region and will pick up upside momentum on a sustained break above 90. EURINR is bullish towards 92. USDINR could continue trade within 83.25-83.40.

The US Treasury yields have come down again and are poised near their crucial support. Failure to get a strong and sustained bounce from here can drag them lower this week. The German yields are coming down towards their key supports in line with our expectation. There is little room left on the downside and a reversal is possible going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remains mixed and can continue to oscillate within their narrow range.

Dow Jones needs to overcome its immediate resistance to avoid a fall back. DAX outlook is bullish as long as it holds above 15900-15800. Nifty has to breach 19850 decisively to strengthen its bullish momentum. Nikkei is stuck in a range. Shanghai looks bearish for the near term.

Crude prices look bearish to fall towards their respective supports. Gold has entered into its crucial resistance zone. Need to see if that can halt the current rally or not. Silver has broken above it key resistance and if the break sustains, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Copper remains bearish while below 3.85. Natural Gas needs to rise past 2.95-3.00 to strengthen its momentum.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

29 Nov 23. 0900 IST or 0330 GMT or 2230 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index extended the fall after FED Governor, Christopher Waller indicated a possible rate cut in the months ahead if inflation decline continues. Euro trades above 1.10 and could be headed higher if the Dollar Index continues to fall to 102-101.50. EURJPY is bearish to 161/160 while below 164. USDJPY ha come down to test 147 as expected and if the fall continues, next target could be 145. . USDCNY has potential to fall to 7.10/05. Aussie and Pound have scope to rise towards 0.67 and 1.28 respectively. USDRUB could trade within 88-90 region. EURINR could test 92 before coming off from there. USDINR could dip towards 83.25/20 while below 83.40.

The US Treasury yields have declined further. The 10Yr is below its key support and can see an extended fall from here before reversing higher again. The German yields are poised near their crucial support. Failure to get a strong bounce from here can drag then further lower. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continues to remain mixed within their sideways range.

Dow Jones needs a sustained break above 35500 to see an extended rise to 36000 and to avoid a fall back. DAX can see a near term dip but the broader outlook remains bullish. Nifty has risen well above 19850 and looks bullish to target further upside. Nikkei is to remain range bound. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Release of Strong US consumer confidence for Oct-23 than the market expectation has led to a recovery in Crude prices and caused a sharply rally in Precious metals. Natural has fallen back failing to rise above 3.00 and looks likely to come down more from here.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

30 Nov 23. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2219 EST

Good Morning!

The US GDP data (Q/Q%, second estimate for Q3) came slightly higher than market expectations at 5.06% that brought in some volatility in the markets but Dollar Index has scope to fall to 102-101.50 while below 103. Euro can rise to 1.11 while above immediate support at 1.0950. EURJPY can fall to 161 which if sustains can produce a bounce else can drag it to 160 before the expected bounce is seen. USDJPY needs to sustain above 147 to move higher, else can target 145 soon. USDCNY has been trading within a narrow region of 7.12-7.16; view is bearish to 7.10. Pound has a fair chance of seeing a rise towards 1.28 before seeing a reversal from there. Aussie, while below 0.67 can fall to 0.65/64 in the medium term. USDRUB continues to trade within 88-90 region with a possible rise to the upper end of the range. USDINR may trade within 83.25-83.40. EURINR could test 92-92.25 on the upside before coming down.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall and have room to decline further.Supports are coming up but will have to see if the yields are managing bounce back from there or not. The US PCE data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have declined below their key supports. More fall is on the cards. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continue to oscillate within their narrow range.

Dow Jones needs a sustained break above 35500 to see an extended rise and to avoid the danger of seeing a fall back. DAX has risen sharply above 16000 and looks bullish to rise towards it crucial resistance in the near term. Nifty continues to rise and remains bullish to target new highs. Nikkei is coming down towards its lower end of the range. Shanghai is gradually falling and can come down towards 3000-2950.

Crude prices have risen well and have scope to test their immediate resistance before a reversal can be seen. Gold and Silver needs a sustained break above 2075 and 25.50 to see an extended rise and to avoid a fall back. Copper outlook is bullish while it sustains above 3.80-3.78. Natural gas remains subdued and has scope to fall towards its support.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

01 Dec 23. 0915 IST or 0345 GMT or 2245 EST

Good Morning!

Several data releases were seen yesterday. Higher German Unemployment rate, lower inflation rate for Eurozone, higher US Jobless claims, higher US Personal income and personal spending, OPEC+ meeting outcome, decent recovery in US yields across all timeframes all put together has brought in volatility in the markets. Euro has faced downward pressure breaking below 1.09 but holds above support at 1.0850 above which some hopes of potential rise is still in place. Dollar Index has moved up taking support at 102.50 but while below 104, there are chances of a fall back again soon. Overall immediate movements are likely to be a reaction to market news and data released yesterday. PMI data releases for most countries are due today which could keep the market volatility alive. Most currencies have seen a correction within an ongoing movement seen over the last 1-week but the overall larger trend is likely to remain intact as the corrections may last for a few more sessions.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. Need to see if they sustain the rise and get a strong follow-through rise from here or not. The US PCE rose 3.5% (YoY) in October, down from 3.68% a month ago. The German yields remain lower and stable. The outlook is bearish, and the yields have room to fall more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continues to oscillate within their sideways range.

Dow Jones has risen sharply above 35500 and can now rise further on the upside. DAX remains bullish to rise towards it crucial resistance in the near term. Nifty outlook is bullish while above the support at 20000-19900. Nikkei has bounced back keeping the 33000-34000 range tarde intact. Shanghai is coming down as expected and can fall towards 3000-2950.

Crude prices fell sharply from levels below their key resistance after OPEC+ announced that it will reduce its output of crude oil by 1 million barrels per day but didn't provide any information on how the cutbacks would be carried out. Gold and Silver can fall back if they fails to overcome the hurdle at 2075 and 26 respectively. Copper is holding well above the support at 3.80 and looks bullish to rise towards its resistance. Natural gas is bearish while it stays below 2.90.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

04 Dec 23. 0859 IST or 0329 GMT or 2229 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index needs to trade below 104 to remain ranged within 102.50-104 else can turn bullish to revised upward range. Euro needs to hold above 1.0850 to move up towards 1.09/10. EURJPY has fallen below 160 and can be head towards 158. Dollar Yen has crucial support at 146 while USDCNY is holding between 7.12-7.15/16. Aussie and Pund can be ranged below 0.67 and 1.27 for a while. USDRUB has moved up well over the past few sessions and look bullish for a rise towards 92. EURINR is falling sharply but could face some support at 90. USDINR could be ranged within 83.25-83.40.

The US Treasury yields have declined again. A break below their crucial supports can see an extended fall this week. It is a wait and watch situation now. The German yields continue to move down in line with our expectation. They have room to fall more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their narrow sideways range.

Dow Jones has risen sharply above 36000 after Fed dovish remark on Friday. DAX is coming closer to its crucial resistance. Nifty can test its immediate resistance before a corrective dip can be seen. Nikkei remains stuck within 33000-34000 range. Shanghai has bounced back but the broader outlook remains bearish while below 3060.

Crude prices look bearish to fall towards their key support before a pause can be seen. Gold jumped to its all time high above 2100 and Silver rose to 26.34 on market speculation that Federal Reserve's (Fed) cycle of rate hikes has peaked after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dovish comment i.e. "our policy rate is well into restrictive territory" on Friday and might do a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024. However the market has ignored his warning that it would be premature to conclude that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance or might ease rates. Natural gas outlook remains bearish for the near term.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

05 Dec 23. 0836 IST or 0306 GMT or 2206 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index needs to hold below 104 to fall towards 102 while Euro needs sustain above 1.08, else would be vulnerable to see 1.07-1.06. EURJPY has risen from 158.72 and could rise towards 160 before again declining back towards 158. Dollar Yen has sustained well above 146 can rise towards 148-150 in the near term. USDCNY continues to trade between 7.12-7.15/16. Aussie could fall towards 0.65 or lower while the resistance at 0.67 holds. Pound can be ranged below 1.27 for a while. USDRUB is rising as expected and is likely to test 92-94 on the upside. EURINR is falling sharply but could face some support at 90. USDINR could be ranged within 83.25-83.40.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly. A break below their crucial supports if seen can extend bearish bias. The German yields continue to move down in line with our expectation. They have room to fall more in the coming sessions. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped yesterday and could trade within a narrow range for sometime before breaking higher eventually.

Dow Jones lacks strength but outlook remains bullish while above the support at 36000-35800. DAX is heading up towards the key resistance as expected. Need to see if it breaks higher or falls back from there. Nifty has surged above 20500 and may look to rise further from here. Nikkei has broken below its sideways range and looks vulnerable to fall further while below 33000. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Crude prices have declined towards their key support from where a possible bounce back can be seen. Gold, Silver and Natural gas remains vulnerable for the near term. Copper looks bearish to break below its immediate support at 3.80 and fall further.

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06 Dec 23. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2224 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index needs to rise and sustain above 104 to maintain its bullishness else a fall back to 102.50 can be seen. Euro has broken below 1.08 and could be bearish to 1.07-1.06 if the Dollar Index rises past 104. EURJPY failed to rise past 160 and is headed towards 158. Dollar Yen is rising as expected and could soon test 148/149 before reversing towards 147/146. USDCNY continues to trade between 7.12-7.15/16 but has fair scope to test 7.16/17 before reversing from there. Aussie is declining as expected and can soon test 0.6450 while below 0.67. Pound trades at crucial support at 1.26 which if broken on the downside could be bearish. USDRUB has fallen back but downside seems limited to 90-88. EURINR has dipped slightly below 90 and could be bearish to 89. USDINR continues to trade within 83.25-83.40.

Lower US Job opening data (JOLTS), and dovish comments from FED officials over the last few days have priced in a possible end of the rate hike cycle by the Fed as markets now expect a possible rate cut as soon as Mar-24. The US Treasury yields have fallen sharply and could continue to fall some more in the coming sessions. The German and Indian GOI have also declined and look bearish for the next few sessions.

Dow Jones can fall back if it fails to sustain above 36000 and rise past 36200. DAX has entered into the crucial resistance zone of 16600 which might halt the current rally. Nifty continues to rise and has room to target further upside. Nikkei has recovered after 3 consecutive fall but could face rejections from 33500. Shanghai has declined as expected and may see a test of key support in the near term before a reversal can happen.

Crude prices are trading near their key supports. Failure to hold above them can be vulnerable to see deeper fall in the coming sessions. Gold, Silver and Natural gas remain bearish for the near term. Copper has bounced back slightly but upside looks capped at 3.82-3.84 region.

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07 Dec 23. 0852 IST or 0322 GMT or 2222 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index if sustains above 104, can rally towards 106 pulling down Euro to 1.07/1.06 and taking USDJPY back towards 148 from support at 146. EURJPY has fallen to immediate support at 158 and needs to bounce back from here to prevent further fall to 157/156; else can head towards 156 soon. USDCNY is rising slowly towards 7.16/17 from where rejection is possible. While the US Dollar strengthens, the downside for USDCNY could be limited. Aussie is declining as expected and can soon test 0.6450 while below 0.66. Pound has broken below 1.26 and could be headed towards 1.25/24 soon. USDRUB is rising as expected and is likely to test 94. EURINR is headed towards 89. USDINR may trade within 83.25-83.40.

US yields, German yields and the India GOI have all continued to fall. While US and German yields can fall some more in the near term, Indian GOI yields may find immediate support below current levels.

Dow Jones looks range bound but can fall if it fails to rise past 36200 and sustain above 36000. DAX has broken above its resistance at 16600 to target its next crucial resistance. Nifty continues its rally and a break above 21000 mark can open doors to further upside. Nikkei has fallen back after facing rejections from 33500 as expected. Shanghai is coming down to test it key support before a reversal can be seen.

Crude prices have broken below their interim supports but have next crucial supports coming up which may hold and produce a bounce back from there. Gold is getting support at 2025 and may see a short term rise from here. Silver and Natural gas are near their immediate supports. Need to see if the support holds or not. Copper has risen back but upside could be capped at 3.76-3.80.

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08 Dec 23. 0903 IST or 0333 GMT or 2233 EST

Good Morning!

Hint of a policy shift from the Bank of Japan pulled down USDJPY towards 141.60, weakening the US Dollar against other major basket of currencies and taking Euro slightly higher. However, the US NFP data today would be crucial to keep volatility intact in the currencies for a few more sessions. Dollar Index trades below 104 while Euro has fallen back below 1.08 after a brief rise to 1.0817. EURJPY has plunged to 154.74 while Aussie and Pound have witnessed slight up moves but need to see if they sustain in the medium term. USDRUB tested levels above 93 but has come off from there. USDCNY could trade within 7.17-7.12 for now while USDINR could also remain ranged within 83.25-83.40. EURINR could trade within 90.50-89.

US yields and German yields have risen after recent sessions of sharp fall. Some more recovery can be seen in the coming sessions. However, the Indian GOI yields have continued to fall but could be nearing supports from where a bounce can be expected next week.

Dow Jones is stuck in a narrow range. DAX can fall if they fails to sustain above 16600. Nifty has declined a bit and can fall further while it stays below 21000. Nikkei has fallen sharply below 32500 and has room to come down further from here. Shanghai has bounced back from 2950 and is likely to extend the bounce further in the near term.

Crude prices have recovered from levels above their key supports and may look to rise towards their immediate resistance. Gold is rising steadily and looks bullish for the near term. Silver has to sustain above 24 and rise past 24.50 to reduce the downside risk. Watch price action of precious metals after the outcome of US NFP data today. A disappointing US NFP release could boost Gold and Silver prices whereas a higher US NFP data could be bearish for precious metals. Natural gas has rebounded and has scope to rise towards its resistance. Copper has risen sharply breaking above its resistance and if the rise sustains, a further rally can be seen.

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