Disliked{quote} Thank you for your support, sharingan9, but just put him on the ignore-list as he is a troll here on FF. Just check the last two threads he started: one implying that real traders hedge and Martingale (yes, really!! And he is upset about my averaging down thread?!?!), and in another thread he is bashing other FF users in rhyme?!Ignored
With all due respect, and I know that nub doesn't need to be defended (please don't bash me nubcake!), but his martingale thread was "tongue and cheek"... to his credit, nubcake has been a long-time (since at least 2009) vocal critic of approaches that advocate martingale, same-pair hedging (or "nedging" as merlin called it back in the day) and blindly averaging down (nanningbob and the like)... and his BS detector pops up when someone claims that they have been long-term profitable by trading those approaches...if you read his older posts, he is one smart trader, and the traders that he bashed are really never heard from again after making their claims of success...
IMO, the point that nubcake makes is the bane that every technical system confronts... what happens in the past doesn't pertain to what will happen in the future, and that mining past data using random entries (or even non-random entries) and averaging down without a true "edge" will get killed at some point when the trend runs strongly opposite of a basket of open trades (i.e. the death trade). I believe that what you have shown is fascinating from the standpoint that averaging down may work even with random entries IF you close a losing basket at some point before the size of the loss does irreparable damage to your account.
The approach that you've presented, and that I believe that nubcake is in disagreement, is the opening of trades at highly specific TL/SL points that were optimized based on data mining. The question becomes what happens to the equity curve when you do a walk-forward test with those same parameters? In other words if you data mined from 2010-2016 and then walked forward from 2017-2023, do you generate the same equity curve? Or better yet, if you optimized the TP/SL points for 2010-2011, what does the walk-forward curve look like in 2012? Do a yearly (or bi-yearly if you need more data points) rolling period optimization and compare the parameters for each time period. Did the parameters need to be readjusted every year (or every two years)? If they did, then the approach will most likely fail miserably in real time... but if the parameters are stable, then you might be onto something!
Just my 2 cents,
Dave
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