I have 1 year trading forex and I can't, sincerely.
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DislikedI was referring to real charts.
If something doesn't look like random then it is not random. If you find a pattern on a price chart that is repeated over and over all the time and that won't appear on a random chart then you have found your edge. Some of these patterns are difficult to spot with the naked eye.Ignored
Disliked7,
I am not a mathematician, but as far as I am aware a random chart should not display or exhibit any repetitions of any patterns.Ignored
DislikedThere can certainly be patterns and repetitions in random data. We can flip heads ten times in a row, and the same principle allows random chart data to appear as a wedge, s&r, waves etc. Instead of heads, we're just getting the data points. The reason random data looks real is because we have so many patterns in our memory that we're bound to find a fit. Then consider that TA patterns are so simple that often only 2-3 data points are needed.Ignored
Dislikedif you can find similar patterns to news and S/R in a big enough random chart, you better don't trade.Ignored
DislikedNo.
If you find patterns in random data then you ere either not looking at random data or your mind is playing tricks on you. You would then do some statistical tests to prove whether these patterns are real or only an illusion.
In real market data you will find patterns that are no illusions, patterns with statistical significance. Otherwise you could never trade it profitably.Ignored
DislikedIf you find patterns in random data then you ere either not looking at random data or your mind is playing tricks on you. You would then do some statistical tests to prove whether these patterns are real or only an illusion.Ignored
Quoting 7bitDislikedThe definition of randomness is that it does not contain patternsIgnored
Quoting H. ReardenDislikedbut...again, how would you (taking this into account) gain an advantage (or as the OP says: 'increased confidence') in the application of technical tools by simply comparing the two patterns?Ignored
Dislikedif you can find similar patterns to news and S/R in a big enough random chart, you better don't trade.Ignored
The point is that most won't be able to just look at a real chart and random chart and point out the difference without first practicing analyzing the two, which I assume very few people here (including me) have done.
DislikedIt's a proven fact that randomized time-series charts can be distinguished from real price charts to a certain degree of accuracy.
Abstract from a recent MIT paper:
We construct a financial “Turing test” to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game http://arora.ccs.neu.edu[font=CMR12]) where players are challenged to distinguish actual financial market returns from random temporal permutations...Ignored
DislikedThe best part is you can actually practice it in real time, the link is in my other post but here it is again.
http://arora.ccs.neu.edu/
It's pretty interesting stuff.Ignored
DislikedThere you go, case closed.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology says it can be done - no need for conducting another poll on the subject.
Great - could you not have come up with this a little earlier...would have saved us some time, hahaha.
H. ReardenIgnored
DislikedThe key is not if it's possible, but HOW. In that experiment you are noticed inmediately if you are wrong or not, but at the beginning you err the same times, so... Is your brain really identifying the real charts or the random method that is being applied to generate the fake charts?Ignored