Disliked{quote} I would second this approach because not only this is precisely how I do it, but it is the only logical approach coming from a systems and engineering point of view, where an degree of failure cannot be tolerated and high reliability is required. Isn't that what we all (well, maybe almost) want out of a trading system? That's also what bewilders me why there are people who still reject this approach and stick to their dogma, that no longer works from a statistically point of view, but they are actually relying on experience and money management...Ignored
I cannot imagine taking anything less than a scientific-like approach to system development using statistics at the core of every decision to include or not include an indicator. The system will be no better than its weakest link coupled to the inherent failure rate of any human designed machine. If the goal is to allow the system to make the decision, then that requires a huge investment of time and energy in weeding out weakness and optimizing strengths while being careful not to over-optimize to the point of curve fitting. It is a delicate balance and that is why I consider trade system development to be half science and half art.
It is either the scientific expression of art, or the artistic expression of science.
I actually have to put myself into a certain mental framework to do that kind of work anymore. I cannot just go there in my mind anymore and do full time research like that. Research is hard work and often times a pain in the butt. I really have to get up for it and gear my mind for that kind of work. It is not easy. I've been trading for so long now, that the pure research seems almost painful now. But, if I come across an idea that seems worthy, I have been known to completely shut down all trade operations and go full blast on research. So, I can still get there in my mind, but it does take a huge motivating factor, like a really good looking idea that deserves to be explored.
And, no. Most people will not engage in this kind of difficult raw research. I do not blame them as it is very hard work. You could spend a long time trying to push an idea into production and the idea just never makes it because it is not good enough, if you maintain your standards that no junk gets into the system. That's self discipline defined. Not every Trader is going to be that hard core. I used to like that hard core, but that stuff can be very painful at times.
I'm talking about picking up your monitor and throwing at the wall painful - I have done that before several times over the years. True story. I once took my computer out to a range and shot it with a 45 caliber semi-automatic. I then got my head on straight, bought a new machine and continued my work. Sometimes, you just have to step away for a while and go do something else for a week - then come back refreshed. This is not a sprint. The whole thing is a marathon. It is a Way of Life. You have to love Trading. It has to be a big part of who you are, or people will not develop the survival mentality required to make it long term.
On the other hand, you have to know when to quit, leave an idea alone and start working on a new idea. This is a level of internal sensitivity that few Traders will come to know. You need to develop a sixth sense about when something is not going to work and then move on to something else that will. At the very same time, you cannot give up on an idea too soon. This level of research skill comes with time and experience. Knowing when to shift gears is just as important as developing new ideas in the first place.
You just have to want it bad enough, that's all. Blow off what over steam you need to and then get back to work - take time off when you need to - strike a good balance between work and relaxation, etc. You have to be very determined to see success and not give up when things get tough. It can be done, but the Trader has to really want it.
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